What Is the Bitcoin Price Prediction After the Lunar New Year 2024?

2024/02/13 05:57:22

The Chinese Lunar New Year, a time of renewal and celebration, has historically served as a catalyst for heightened sentiment and increased activity in the cryptocurrency markets. This period is often marked by significant price movements in Bitcoin (BTC), as investors and enthusiasts alike engage in transactions that can drive the market in notable directions. In the midst of the ongoing Lunar New Year of the Dragon (pronounced 'Long'), Bitcoin has once again taken center stage, surpassing the significant milestone of $50,000 on Monday, February 12. This remarkable achievement underscores the cryptocurrency's resilience and the growing confidence of investors in its potential.

Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price

So, why has Bitcoin broken out of the range and started trading bullish in recent sessions? Here’s a look at some of the recent developments supporting the uptrend in BTC price:

1. Bitcoin Halving 2024

The Bitcoin halving event, expected in April 2024, is a significant driver for price increases. Historical data shows that Bitcoin prices tend to surge following halving events due to the reduced rate of new BTC entering the market, creating a supply shock. Predictions suggest that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs post-halving, with forecasts ranging from $46,900 around the time of the halving to potentially $88,400 three months after.

2. Positive Sentiment and Economic Indicators

The general sentiment in the crypto market has been increasingly bullish, supported by improving economic indicators, such as job gains and a deceleration of inflation. These factors have historically correlated with rises in cryptocurrency prices, including Bitcoin.

3. Regulatory Developments and Bitcoin ETFs

Recent regulatory advancements, such as the Markets in Crypto-assets (MiCA) Law in the European Union, are expected to encourage broader crypto adoption, particularly among institutional investors. The recent decision by Thailand to remove VAT on crypto trading could also further stimulate market activity by reducing the cost of crypto transactions, potentially attracting more investors to the market. These developments could lead to increased demand and higher prices for Bitcoin.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows | Source: TheBlock

The recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US market continue to see strong inflows a month after their approval. In the past week alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs netted a total inflow of $1.1 billion, as per data on CoinShares.

4. Innovation and Market Dynamics

Innovations within the Bitcoin ecosystem, including the introduction of Bitcoin Ordinals and developments in Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions and blockchain-based remittances, are creating new yield opportunities and driving increased network activity. These innovations are expected to contribute to Bitcoin's value growth.

5. External Economic Factors

Predictions also factor in external economic shifts, such as potential changes in the strength of the U.S. dollar. High-profile financial commentators have speculated that significant global financial movements, including actions by the BRICS nations, could lead to an influx of investment into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Analysts and Experts' Predictions on Bitcoin Price

Let's delve into more specific predictions and insights from analysts and experts regarding Bitcoin's price as we approach the Chinese Lunar New Year and beyond into 2024, particularly in light of the upcoming Bitcoin halving and other influential factors.

BitQuant's Prediction: A notable prediction comes from BitQuant, suggesting that Bitcoin will surpass its current peak of $69,000 before April 2024. The firm anticipates a new all-time high pre-halving and predicts a staggering $250,000 after the halving. This prediction is based on Elliott Wave charting, expecting Bitcoin to mimic behavior from previous cycles. BitQuant also forecasts several pullbacks en route to this quarter-million mark.
CryptoCon's Forecast: CryptoCon, a popular analyst, projects a target zone of around $130,000 for Bitcoin. This prediction is grounded in a range of forecasting tools and suggests that reaching a six-figure price may take up to two years from now, emphasizing the influence of halving events on BTC's price trajectory.
TradingShot's Analysis: According to TradingShot, a crypto trading expert, Bitcoin could potentially hit $65,000 by August 19, 2024. This prediction is partly based on speculation around ETFs and anticipates a parabolic bull cycle rally leading up to and following the upcoming halving.
Michael Saylor's Viewpoint: Michael Saylor, the Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy and a well-known Bitcoin advocate, believes 2024 will be pivotal for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Saylor highlighted the potential game-changing impact of the approval of spot ETFs and the halving event, suggesting a substantial demand shock followed by a supply shock could significantly propel Bitcoin's value.
Robert Kiyosaki's Bold Prediction: Renowned author and financial educator Robert Kiyosaki predicts Bitcoin will reach $120,000 in 2024. His forecast is based on the expectation of a gold-backed cryptocurrency announcement by the BRICS nations, leading to a significant shift in the global financial landscape and a surge in Bitcoin investment.
Van Eck's Long-term Outlook: Van Eck, an investment management firm, expects Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs by Q4 2024, driven by factors such as the US election, the halving event, and regulatory changes that could simplify crypto investments.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook

BTC/USD H4 price chart | Source: TradingView

The technical chart for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) presents a highly bullish scenario as the cryptocurrency forms a bull flag pattern following a bull pennant pattern on the H4 chart. These chart formations are considered strong bullish indicators in the realm of price action trading, often signaling the continuation of an upward trend.

Moreover, an impressive 92.75% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now in profit. Historically, values above 95% have signaled local tops, with the last instance occurring during the all-time high of $68,000 in November 2021. This metric suggests that while the market is in a strong position, investors should remain vigilant for signs of a potential local top as we approach these historically significant levels.

Another critical factor to consider is Bitcoin's position relative to the 0.618 level on the monthly Fibonacci retracement. Historically, breaking above this level has been a precursor to achieving new all-time highs (ATHs). With the momentum from ETFs entering the market more quickly than in previous cycles, there is an anticipation of reaching or even surpassing the $69,000 mark soon, especially if the current market strength persists into the halving event.

With BTC trading above $50,000 and the funding rate holding steady at 0.01%, the market conditions seem unfavorable for bears in the upcoming week. This stability in the funding rate, coupled with the bullish chart patterns and market sentiment, suggests a robust underlying strength in the Bitcoin market.

Investors and traders should monitor these technical indicators and market metrics closely. The combination of bullish chart patterns, a high percentage of Bitcoin in profit, and the potential impact of ETFs and the upcoming halving event, all contribute to a compelling technical outlook for Bitcoin as we move forward.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Key Takeaways

Bull Flag and Bull Pennant Patterns: These bullish formations on the H4 chart indicate a potential continuation of the upward trend.
High Percentage of Bitcoin in Profit: Currently at 92.75%, approaching levels that historically indicate potential local tops.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Surpassing the 0.618 level on the monthly chart often leads to new ATHs.
Influence of ETFs: The quicker momentum from ETFs compared to previous cycles could accelerate price movements.
Market Conditions: With BTC above $48,000 and a stable funding rate, the market setup seems challenging for bearish positions in the near term.

Uncertainties Impacting Bitcoin's Potential Rally

While the bullish sentiment around Bitcoin's recent performance is palpable, especially following its surge past the $50,000 mark, several challenges and considerations loom on the horizon that could potentially dampen optimism and exert downward pressure on prices. Understanding these factors is crucial for a balanced perspective on Bitcoin's future trajectory.

Regulatory Uncertainties in Key Markets Worldwide: Mixed signals from major economies (U.S., EU, Asia) on crypto regulation create market volatility. Regulatory actions, ranging from oversight to bans, can limit market participation and attractiveness.
Fed Interest Changes: As the Federal Reserve continues to monitor inflation and labor employment figures, any corresponding changes in interest rates could impact investors' appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin. Higher interest rates often make traditional investments more appealing, potentially drawing investments away from high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
The Upcoming US Elections: Election outcomes can lead to changes in fiscal and regulatory policies affecting the crypto market. Political uncertainty increases market volatility, as investors speculate on policy implications for cryptocurrencies.

Closing Thoughts

In summary, the confluence of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, regulatory developments, economic indicators, and innovations within the crypto space all contribute to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2024. The blend of expert predictions, coupled with supporting economic and regulatory factors, paints a broadly optimistic picture for Bitcoin in the lead-up to and following the 2024 halving event. While individual predictions vary, the consensus leans towards significant growth potential for Bitcoin, influenced by both macroeconomic factors and specific developments within the crypto market.

While the exact price trajectory remains uncertain due to the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, these factors suggest that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in the coming years. As always, investors must research and consider the inherent volatility and risks of cryptocurrency investments.