Bitcoin Halving Countdown 2024 - Everything You Need to Know

The Bitcoin halving of 2024 looms large in the dynamic crypto market and captures the attention of Bitcoin enthusiasts and global investors alike. The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to occur in April 2024, and will reduce the block rewards by 50% from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all witnessed significant price hikes in the months following the event. Bitcoin soared 5,200% after the 2012 halving, 315% after the 2016 halving, and 230% after the 2020 halving. 

Now, add the potential game-changer: spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10, 2024. The Bitcoin ETFs have granted traditional investors an easier, more familiar way to access Bitcoin, opening the floodgates to institutional investment, a segment currently hesitant due to regulatory concerns. As of March 2024, a little over two months since the ETFs were approved by the US SEC, total assets under management (AUM) have already crossed $50 billion. BlackRock’s ETF IBIT holds nearly 200,000 BTC at the time of writing. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF AUM | Source: TheBlock

Following Litecoin halving in 2023, all eyes now turn to Bitcoin halving in 2024. This event, which occurs approximately every four years, represents a pivotal moment in the life cycle of the world's first cryptocurrency. It's a time of anticipation, speculation, and profound economic implications.

The 2024 halving will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, impacting Bitcoin mining profitability and potentially influencing Bitcoin's price. Historically, halving events have been bullish for Bitcoin's value, although they can also introduce short-term volatility. With Bitcoin being a major player in the cryptocurrency market, its halving can have ripple effects across the entire crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin halving is estimated to occur in April 2024. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Countdown Timer: Updated in Real Time

The BTC halving process is embedded in Bitcoin's protocol by its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, to mimic the scarcity and deflationary nature of precious metals. This event plays a pivotal role in Bitcoin's monetary policy, impacting its supply and, potentially, its value.

The Bitcoin halving, occurring roughly every four years or after about 210,000 blocks are mined (at a pace of roughly one block every 10 minutes), is a fundamental aspect of Bitcoin's design. This event reduces the block reward for miners by 50%, a process designed to control Bitcoin's supply and inflation. Initially, miners received 50 BTC per block, but after several halvings, the current reward is 6.25 BTC per block. The block reward will reduce to 3.125 BTC per block after the 2024 Bitcoin halving. 

The halving process is a key part of the Bitcoin system because it controls the supply of new bitcoins entering the market. By reducing the reward for mining, the halving process slows the rate at which new bitcoins are generated, thereby controlling inflation. It's also an event that often sparks significant interest and speculation within the cryptocurrency market.

How many Bitcoins have been mined? As of March 2024, the BTC circulating supply is over 19.65 million out of the total supply of 21 million. The halving events slow the rate at which new BTC is mined, extending the date by which all 21 million BTC will be mined.

Mining a block refers to validating and recording transactions into a block that gets added to the Bitcoin blockchain. Every Bitcoin block comprises new transactions that have occurred within Bitcoin's network. Miners commit these transactions to the blockchain and are granted a specific amount of Bitcoin in exchange for their services. 

When Bitcoin was first created in 2009, the reward for mining a block was 50 bitcoins. Since then, halving events over the years have slashed the Bitcoin mining block rewards by 50% each time to the present rate of 6.25 BTC. It will soon slash to 3.125 BTC per block mined on the Bitcoin blockchain following the next halving event.  

Bitcoin miners located worldwide contribute to the security and decentralization of the decentralized Bitcoin network. The collective efforts of miners around the globe make it incredibly challenging for any single entity to control more than 50% of the total mining power, thereby safeguarding the network against potential 51% attacks.

Bitcoin halving works automatically, with the code executing an “update” every 210,000 blocks, cutting down the mining rewards given to the miners for adding a block to the blockchain. 

Why Does Bitcoin Halving Happen?

Bitcoin halving is a part of the Bitcoin monetary policy, embedded into the Bitcoin protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. The halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, mimicking the scarcity and deflationary aspects of precious metals like gold. 

Bitcoin's Proof of Work (PoW) consensus mechanism requires miners to solve complex mathematical problems, using significant computational power, to add a new block to the blockchain, for which they are rewarded with a portion of the mined Bitcoins. This process, while energy-intensive, secures the network and ensures the validity of transactions. 

On the other hand, Ethereum transitioned to a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus in September 2022 as part of the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. The former PoW blockchain now uses chosen validators to create a new block based on the amount of Ethereum they hold and are willing to 'stake' as collateral. This change marks a significant shift towards a more energy-efficient method of maintaining network integrity and security.

Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every four years or after every 210,000 blocks. The next, or 4th, Bitcoin halving is eagerly anticipated to occur on April 22, 2024, at 13:57:26 UTC. This event will mark a significant milestone in Bitcoin's economic model by reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC at a block height of 840,000.

Past Bitcoin halving events | Source: TradingView

Each Bitcoin halving event is tracked and observed with the help of the Bitcoin halving clock and Bitcoin halving countdown timers.

When will the last Bitcoin be mined? There are approximately 31 Bitcoin halvings left. Consequently, based on Bitcoin's four-year halving schedule, the final Bitcoin is projected to be mined around 2140. Even though 100% of BTC will be mined around 2140, more than 98% will be mined by 2030. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is designed as a store of value with a fixed supply of 21 million. The concept of Bitcoin, conceived by Satoshi Nakamoto during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, was to offer an alternative to inflation-prone fiat currencies like the US dollar. 

Bitcoin halving plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's value proposition, directly impacting the rate at which new bitcoins are generated. The reduction in block rewards following each halving event creates artificial scarcity, affecting the supply of new bitcoins entering the market and potentially influencing Bitcoin's price.

Unlike several other deflationary cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin relies on halving mechanisms to support its value despite its inherent inflationary design until all 21 million BTC get mined. 

Bitcoin halving affects the ecosystem in two main parties: 

• Miners: Responsible for validating transactions and maintaining the blockchain's decentralization, miners face changes in profitability with each halving, as their rewards for adding new blocks are halved.

• Investors: Both traders and long-term holders of BTC closely monitor halving events, as these can lead to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin's market value.

Bitcoin halving directly impacts mining profitability by reducing the block reward or the number of bitcoins miners receive for validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain. While it can lead to short-term challenges for some miners, it plays a crucial role in maintaining the cryptocurrency's value and scarcity over time. 

Reduced Mining Rewards 

The reduction in block rewards after each halving event significantly affects miners by cutting their rewards for verifying transactions in half, thereby reducing miners' income in the short term as they receive fewer bitcoins for their efforts.

It can result in smaller and less efficient miners becoming unprofitable, leading to consolidation in the mining ecosystem as larger players such as mining pools dominate. However, Bitcoin mining could turn profitable despite the reduction in block rewards if the value of Bitcoin increases in the future. 

Miners can mine BTC and sell them at a higher price when the market turns bullish. They can use hedge strategies in the futures market by leveraging Bitcoin to maximize their profits. 

Impact on Bitcoin Mining Difficulty and Profitability 

The reduction in rewards could temporarily bring down the mining difficulty if some miners exit the Bitcoin network due to declining profitability.

Changes in Bitcoin mining difficulty after halving | Source: CoinWarz

However, the mining difficulty was almost not affected by the past halvings because of the inherent long-term investment commitment of BTC miners. Investing in computing power is expensive, and any downtime can contribute negatively to potential miner gains. As past halving events didn’t witness obvious dips in mining difficulty, most miners continue mining post-halving (even if the current situation is not profitable), hoping to profit in the next bull run. 

Bitcoin Network’s Security 

Bitcoin halving can indirectly impact the security of the Bitcoin network by increasing the threshold of miner profitability. If the price of BTC doesn’t catch up fast enough, some miners may be outpriced and forced to stop their operations.  

This could theoretically concentrate mining power among fewer participants, potentially making the network more susceptible to a 51% attack. However, Bitcoin’s network is currently extensive and well-diversified, and minor dents in computing power working towards securing the blockchain should be insignificant.

Investors often perceive Bitcoin halving differently than miners. This event is seen as an opportunity for significant profits due to the potential increase in Bitcoin's scarcity and value. Halvings reduce the rate of new Bitcoin creation, possibly driving up demand and price.  

While halvings typically have a bullish long-term effect on Bitcoin's price, they can also introduce short-term volatility. Investors and traders could react to the halving event with uncertainty, leading to fluctuations in Bitcoin's price.

Historical data suggests that Bitcoin halving significantly impacts Bitcoin's price. Here’s how: 

1. Accumulation Phase: Leading up to the first, second, third, and the upcoming halving, Bitcoin typically enters an accumulation phase, lasting between 13 and 22 months. During this period, historical data indicates a trend of slight uptrend or sideways trading, likely driven by pre-halving accumulation activities.

2. Bull Phase: Each stagnation/accumulation phase has historically been followed by a bull phase, lasting between 10 and 15 months. In these phases, Bitcoin has experienced significant price surges, often recovering swiftly from any major pullbacks and reaching new all-time highs.

3. Pullback/Bear Phase: Following the bull phase, Bitcoin has traditionally entered a correction period. While the first post-halving pullback lasted over 600 days, the subsequent ones were approximately a year in duration.

Recent Halving Events and BTC Price Trends

The last halving cycle began with Bitcoin rising from a bear market low around $3,300 to just below $14,000. This accumulation phase was succeeded by a sharp increase, propelling BTC to over $69,000. However, it also encountered a significant pullback during the bull phase, followed by a transition into a bear market with a substantial drop of over 77% in price.

Bitcoin Halving Chart on a Logarithmic Scale

Bitcoin Halving Chart | Source: KuCoin TradingView

As we approach the next Bitcoin halving, expected around April 2024 (Bitcoin halving 2024), the market appears to be in a pre-halving accumulation phase. Historically, this phase is characterized by sideways trading, which has been observed for nearly a year amidst market uncertainty and varied news in the cryptocurrency space. However, the vast majority of analysts, institutional investors, and financial prediction models forecast a bright future for BTC in the coming months and years.

If historical patterns hold, we can anticipate continued sideways trading or minor fluctuations for approximately 250-350 days prior to the Bitcoin halving date. This extended accumulation phase is likely to set the stage for a subsequent bull market post-halving.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model and Analyst Predictions

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model price prediction | Source: LookIntoBitcoin 

The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, a popular predictive tool, suggests a potential rise in Bitcoin's price to around $440,000 by May 2025, with a high of over $300,000 by the end of 2024. However, it's crucial to note that percentage gains from previous bull runs have been diminishing. Considering this trend, the next upswing might not exceed a 500% increase, although factors like rising institutional interest and spot Bitcoin ETF approvals could significantly influence the market.

Here’s more on Bitcoin price prediction if a spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved.

Various analysts and financial experts have shared their predictions for Bitcoin's future price:  

• Pantera Capital anticipates Bitcoin nearing $150,000 in its next four-year halving cycle. 

• The Lowest Price Forward metric projects Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by 2026. 

• Jesse Myers, a Bitcoin investor and co-founder of Onramp, foresees Bitcoin breaching $100,000, but not before the next halving. 

• Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," concurs with the prediction of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 post-halving. 

• Adam Back, Blockstream CEO and a figure cited in the Bitcoin whitepaper, predicts Bitcoin reaching over $100,000 even before the next halving. 

• Samson Mow of Jan3 also expects a significant rise in Bitcoin's price before the halving event. 

• Standard Chartered Bank revised its prediction to $120,000 by the end of 2024. 

• Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030.

• Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, expects Bitcoin to surge past $200,000 by the end of 2024, driven by a “massive supply-demand” dynamic, powered by increasing demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

• Analysts at Bernstein expect Bitcoin to touch a cycle high of $150,000 by mid-2025, as a result of higher demand from BTC ETFs.

• Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, predicts Bitcoin price to touch a high of $170,000 within the next one-and-a-half years. He expects Bitcoin’s total market cap to reach at least half of that of gold. 

• Analysts at CryptoQuant predict a short-term target of around $54,000, with the potential to reach as high as $160,000 in the longer term, contingent on various factors, including the halving itself, macroeconomic trends, and rising stablecoin liquidity. 

Additional Catalysts Driving Bitcoin Price 

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is poised to be a landmark event, potentially surpassing the impact of previous halvings. However, other factors beyond the halving event will also influence the volatility of the Bitcoin price in the coming months: 

Bitcoin US ETF inflows, issuance, and exchanges netflow | Source: Glassnode 

1. Supply-Demand Squeeze: The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US is one of the biggest game-changers affecting Bitcoin’s volatility this halving cycle. ETFs provide a regulated way for more retail and institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin market. Besides, the ETF inflows would further tighten the scarcity of Bitcoin due to the halving. This classic case of  "high demand, low supply" could lead to a sell-liquidity crisis after the halving event and inflate the Bitcoin price.

2. Bitcoin Ecosystem Growth: BRC-20 tokens allow developers to build applications and smart contracts directly on the Bitcoin network, similar to Ethereum. Bitcoin Ordinals enable the inscription of data onto individual Satoshis (smallest unit of Bitcoin), creating unique digital collectibles similar to NFTs. This broader utility could attract new users and drive demand. The growth of Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions like Lightning Network addresses Bitcoin's scalability issues. Faster, cheaper transactions could incentivize wider adoption and increase demand for underlying BTC.

3. Crypto Market Sentiment: The overall crypto market sentiment, which can be influenced by various factors, including technological advancements such as artificial intelligence (AI) and changes in the global economic landscape, can also impact Bitcoin’s price. 

4. Macroeconomic Factors: Global macroeconomic conditions, such as changes to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rates, could cause fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin.

Based on Bitcoin price charts and past halvings, the price could take several months to over a year after the event to experience significant upticks. Past performance is not a guarantee of future price trends. However, it's a period marked by volatility and anticipation, presenting traders with opportunities to earn potential profits.

The approaching 2024 Bitcoin halving and its preceding months might bring significant price volatility. Increased investor interest could yield higher opportunities to generate profits when trading Bitcoin. Here are ways to trade the Bitcoin halving via KuCoin:

1. Buy and Hold Bitcoin 

If you are a beginner and don’t want to miss out on the potential BTC post-halving spike, KuCoin is a great place to start. 

Buying BTC on KuCoin and HODLing it until the next bull run is a great strategy, especially with the support KuCoin offers in terms of the ways you can buy Bitcoin, as well as the deep liquidity that will help you get in and out of your positions as quickly as possible.

2. Dollar-Cost-Averaging into Bitcoin 

If you prefer time in the market to timing the market or simply don’t want to commit to a large position at once — dollar-cost averaging into your BTC investment is a great way to grow your Bitcoin investment. 

The DCA strategy will average out your entry price and let you invest smaller amounts in regular intervals. 

3. Automate BTC Trading With KuCoin Trading Bots

Leverage our trading bots to automate your BTC investments and earn higher profits from your trades. KuCoin's trading bots facilitate automated, high-frequency trading across diverse strategies like  Futures Grid, Spot Grid, Smart Rebalance, Martingale, Infinity Grid, and DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). 

Some bots, like the Infinity Grid, are extremely well-suited for swing trading uptrends. On the other hand, if you want to take things slow, running a DCA bot to automate your investment activities could be the right thing to do before the halving event. Select a strategy, set your parameters, and effortlessly automate your Bitcoin trades with KuCoin.

4. Buy Low and Sell High on the KuCoin Spot Market

Consider trading rather than investing if you want to play a more active role during the BTC halving. KuCoin offers deep liquidity in BTC on our platform and over 250 BTC trading pairs for spot trading. 

Implement your trading strategies through proper utilization of sentiment,  fundamental, and technical analysis to fully capitalize on the upcoming halving event.

5. Go Long or Short on Bitcoin

If you are a high-risk and high-reward trader, you can go long or short on Bitcoin with KuCoin Futures trading and leverage the market volatility surrounding the halving event. It’s an effective way to speculate on price swings expected in the market leading up to the event over the coming months. 

Make sure to DYOR as leverage could magnify your losses if you do not control your risks properly. Set proper take profit and stop loss levels to lock in your profits or limit your losses. KuCoin offers several advanced tools to help you prevent letting your emotions get in your way. 

6. Earn Passive Income While HODLing BTC

In addition to trading Bitcoin across various markets, you can leverage the various passive income generation opportunities KuCoin offers to grow your crypto holdings. KuCoin Earn offers several investment products to make the most of your bitcoins and generate passive income. Stake or lock them, deposit them in our Savings product for a more balanced approach towards crypto investing. 

Put your existing BTC holdings to work by lending liquidity in Bitcoin to the KuCoin platform. Visit our Crypto Lending section to review the latest APYs on BTC and subscribe to the product of your choice. 

If you’re more savvy and keen on higher yields, check out KuCoin’s structured wealth generation products. Choose from Shark Fin, Dual Investment, Snowball, Twin Win, Convert Plus, Future Plus, and other limited-time promotions with higher returns to grow your Bitcoin investments.  

7. Explore BTC Arbitrage Opportunities on KuCoin P2P  

Visit the KuCoin P2P marketplace to find arbitrage trading opportunities in Bitcoin (BTC). Take advantage of price differences across the market to buy low and sell high with P2P trading on KuCoin. 

1. What Is a Bitcoin ETF? Everything You Need to Know

2. Top Bitcoin ETFs: Where and How to Buy Them

3. How to Mine Bitcoin in 2024

4. Best Bitcoin Wallets in 2024

5. Top Bitcoin Layer-2 Projects to Know in 2024

6. What Are BRC-20 Tokens? A Deep Dive Into the Bitcoin Memecoin Machine

7. What Are Bitcoin Ordinals? Your Ultimate Guide to Bitcoin NFTs

8. Top NFT Projects in the Bitcoin Ecosystem to Watch in 2024

9. Bitcoin Lightning Network: All You Need to Know

10. The 7 Best Cryptos to Mine in 2024

1. Is Bitcoin Halving Predictable?

Yes, Bitcoin halving events are predictable based on the blockchain's established schedule, which reduces block rewards every 210,000 blocks.

2. When Did the Last Bitcoin Halving Occur?

The last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, bringing down the block rewards from 12.5 BTC in 2016 to the present 6.25 BTC per block. This event, noted in the Bitcoin halving chart history, marked the third halving in the history of Bitcoin.

3. What Is the Long-Term Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Price?

Bitcoin halving may boost its price by limiting new supply, assuming demand stays strong, but this isn't certain as multiple factors affect Bitcoin's value. The halving effect also hinges on macroeconomic conditions, institutional investor interest, technical advancements within Bitcoin, and broader crypto market sentiment.

While historical data suggests that Bitcoin's price tends to rise after halving events due to increased scarcity, it's important to note that the cryptocurrency market is influenced by many factors, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

4. Does Bitcoin Halving Impact the Network’s Transaction Speed or Cost?

The halving event itself does not directly impact the transaction speed or cost. However, if the reduced block reward leads to fewer miners and potentially slower transaction processing, users might pay higher fees to prioritize their transactions.

5. What Happens When All 21 Million Bitcoins Are Mined?

Once all 21 million bitcoins are mined, no new bitcoins will be created, and transaction fees will compensate miners.

6. Are There Other Cryptocurrencies with Halving Events?

Yes, several other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Kaspa, Dash, and ZCash, have implemented halving events similar to Bitcoin as part of their monetary policies.

7. Is Bitcoin Halving Good or Bad?

It depends on who is asked. For miners, halving can sometimes be a bad thing because of reduced income in the short term. But, if the market goes in their favor, the price would rise and provide a return similar to what it used to be.

For HODLers and traders, halving can only be an event that brings a bigger chance of prices rising.

8. How Does Bitcoin Halving Affect Other Cryptocurrencies? 

As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin significantly influences altcoin prices, including Ethereum, with its price movements. Bitcoin's halving can thus affect the broader crypto market. 

Crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe suggests investing in altcoins 8 to 10 months before a Bitcoin halving when market confidence is usually low. Historical data indicates that the ETH/USDT to ETH/BTC pair hit its cycle low around 252 days before previous Bitcoin halving events.