Bitcoin’s post-halving trajectory has once again become a hot topic among crypto enthusiasts. Historically, the Bitcoin halving event has been a precursor to massive price surges, and many analysts believe that this time, Bitcoin could be heading toward six figures. A series of bullish technical indicators and increasing whale accumulation are adding fuel to this prediction. But can Bitcoin really reach such heights?
Quick Take
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Bitcoin’s price action suggests a potential move towards a six-figure value per BTC, based on historical data and recent technical indicators.
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Indicators like the MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergences, hinting at a possible upward trend.
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On-chain data reveals significant accumulation by Bitcoin whales, indicating strong market confidence.
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Fed rate cut speculations and stablecoin inflows could further support Bitcoin's upward momentum.
The Post-Halving Growth Trajectory
Bitcoin’s growth rate trajectory after fourth halving | Source: Ecoinometrics
Bitcoin’s recent price action has seen it drop below $50,000, which places it under its expected “post-halving growth trajectory range,” according to data from Ecoinometrics. The crypto data provider highlights that if Bitcoin returns to this range before year-end, $100,000 per BTC is not just possible but highly likely.
“If we see the same growth rate as in previous cycles, Bitcoin could be worth between $140,000 and $4,500,000 per coin,” Ecoinometrics noted. This ambitious forecast is based on historical growth patterns that have followed previous halving events.
Read more: Bitcoin price prediction 2024
Bitcoin’s Technical Indicators Shows Bullish Reversal From $60,000
BTC/USDT price chart | Source: KuCoin
From a technical perspective, several indicators are pointing toward a potential bullish reversal. An anonymous analyst, Rekt Capital, noted that Bitcoin’s recovery above $60,000 marks a significant shift in trend. The cryptocurrency is trying to convert a previously broken downtrend resistance into a new support level, which could pave the way for further price increases.
“The key thing here is trend continuation,” Rekt Capital emphasized. The analyst further pointed out that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the daily chart is showing signs of a bullish crossover. This indicator, which compares two moving averages of an asset's price, often signals a bullish trend when it crosses above its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Another indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is showing bullish divergence on the weekly chart. While Bitcoin’s price has formed lower lows, the RSI has been forming higher lows, suggesting that the downward momentum is weakening and that a potential reversal to the upside could be imminent.
Bitcoin Whales Withdraw Over 73,000 BTC in 30 Days
Bitcoin whales continue to accumulate BTC | Source: Glassnode
Adding to the bullish sentiment is the behavior of Bitcoin whales—investors holding at least 1,000 BTC. According to Glassnode, these whales have been accumulating Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, withdrawing over 73,350 BTC from exchanges in the past 30 days. This marks the largest spike in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges since 2015.
The last time such significant accumulation occurred was in 2015 when Bitcoin was trading around $220. What followed was a massive bull run that took the price to $20,000 by December 2017. This historical precedent is raising hopes that a similar scenario could unfold in the coming months.
Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) supports this outlook, showing that Bitcoin whales are returning to a regime of accumulation. The ATS, which assesses balance changes across the market, recorded its highest possible value of 1.0, indicating significant accumulation over the last four weeks.
Read more: Bitcoin Whales Accumulate Over 400k BTC in the Past Month: CryptoQuant Analysis
CME shows a 100% confidence level of Fed Rate Cut in September
CME Fed rate cut likelihood in September | Source: CME
Beyond technical and on-chain data, macroeconomic factors are also playing a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s price action. The Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts in September are being closely watched by the market. CME data shows a 100% confidence level among bond traders that the Fed will cut rates, with a 51.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
A rate cut is generally bullish for Bitcoin, as it could lead to increased liquidity and a weaker dollar, making Bitcoin a more attractive asset.
Stablecoin issuance vs. Bitcoin price | Source: 10x Research
Moreover, stablecoin issuance has surged recently, with Tether and Circle issuing nearly $2.8 billion in the past week. According to Markus Thielen, head researcher at 10x Research, this could indicate that institutional investors are injecting fresh capital into the crypto market, potentially driving Bitcoin prices higher.
Can July US CPI Deliver a Surprise and Impact Rate Cut Chances?
Despite the bullish signals, challenges remain. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s hawkish remarks suggest that she may not support a rate cut in September, which could dampen Bitcoin’s upward momentum. Additionally, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July will be crucial in determining the Fed’s next move. A higher-than-expected CPI could force the Fed to maintain its current policy stance, posing downside risks for Bitcoin.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Experiences Slight Dip After Fed Decisions and CPI Data
Conclusion
As Bitcoin hovers around the $60,000 mark, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can break through resistance levels and reach new highs. For now, the stage seems set for a bullish continuation, but only time will tell if Bitcoin can fulfill the lofty expectations set by its post-halving trajectory.
Bitcoin’s post-halving rally appears to be gaining steam, with technical indicators, whale accumulation, and macroeconomic factors all pointing toward a potential six-figure valuation. However, investors should remain cautious, as external factors such as Federal Reserve policies and inflation data could still impact the market.
Read More: Bitcoin Halving Countdown 2024 - Everything You Need to Know
