Top 7 Decentralized Prediction Markets to Watch in 2024

Decentralized prediction markets are blockchain-based platforms that allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events, ensuring transparency and eliminating the middleman. With the US presidential election of 2024 generating significant interest in the prediction markets, this guide explores the top decentralized prediction markets to watch in 2024.

Decentralized prediction markets are transforming the way we forecast events by leveraging the power of blockchain technology. They offer a fair, transparent, and secure method for participants to bet on outcomes, providing valuable insights and predictions.

Also known as web3 prediction markets, these platforms let you bet on the outcomes of future events using cryptocurrencies. Unlike traditional prediction markets, these platforms operate on blockchain technology, ensuring transparency and security. They eliminate the need for a central authority, allowing you to participate from anywhere in the world.

They provide valuable insights by aggregating the collective wisdom of participants. This can be useful for forecasting political events, economic trends, and even entertainment outcomes. As more users engage, the data becomes increasingly reliable, reflecting the real-time market sentiment.

A decentralized prediction market is a platform where users bet on the outcomes of future events using cryptocurrencies. Unlike traditional, centralized markets, decentralized prediction markets operate on blockchain technology. This ensures transparency, security, and the absence of a central authority that could manipulate the market. Examples of events you can bet on include elections, sports games, and even economic indicators.

Key Components of Decentralized Prediction Markets

Smart Contracts: These are self-executing contracts with the terms of the agreement directly written into code. They automate the execution of bets and payouts without the need for intermediaries.
Oracles: These are services that fetch real-world data and feed it to the blockchain. They ensure that smart contracts receive accurate information about the event outcomes.
Outcome Tokens: When you place a bet, you receive tokens representing your bet. The value of these tokens fluctuates based on market demand and supply until the event concludes.

How Do Web3 Prediction Markets Work?

Decentralized prediction markets use smart contracts to automate transactions. Here’s how they function:

Creation of a Market: A user creates a market for a specific event, such as "Will Candidate A win the election?" This involves setting the parameters for betting options (e.g., "Yes" or "No").
Placing Bets: Participants buy shares in the outcome they believe will occur. For example, if you think Candidate A will win, you buy "Yes" shares. These shares have a price that reflects the current market consensus on the likelihood of the event.
Outcome Determination: Once the event occurs, the outcome is verified by blockchain oracles. Oracles are third-party services that provide real-world data to the blockchain, ensuring the accuracy of the event result.
Settlement: The smart contract automatically distributes the funds to those who bet on the correct outcome. If you bought "Yes" shares and Candidate A wins, you receive a payout based on the number of shares you own.

The following benefits highlight why decentralized prediction markets are gaining traction. They offer a more secure, transparent, and inclusive way to predict future events, making them a valuable tool in the blockchain industry.

Censorship Resistance: Decentralized prediction markets are immune to censorship. Traditional platforms can be shut down by authorities or other entities. In contrast, blockchain-based markets use smart contracts, making them nearly impossible to take down or manipulate. This ensures a reliable and open platform for all users.
Elimination of Intermediaries: In decentralized prediction markets, there are no middlemen. Transactions are executed directly through smart contracts. This reduces costs and eliminates the need to trust a third party. For example, smart contracts automatically handle payouts, reducing the risk of human error or fraud.
Increased Accessibility and Inclusivity: These markets are open to anyone with an internet connection. Traditional prediction markets often have high fees or regional restrictions. Decentralized platforms are permissionless, allowing global participation without significant barriers. This inclusivity enriches the market with diverse perspectives and insights.
Additional Benefits: Decentralized prediction markets also provide greater transparency. All transactions and market activities are recorded on the blockchain, allowing anyone to audit the results. This transparency builds trust among users. Additionally, using blockchain oracles ensures that event outcomes are accurately verified, further enhancing the reliability of these markets.

Here’s a look at some of the best web3 prediction markets in the crypto market:

1. Polymarket

Polymarket, launched in 2020 by founder Shane Coplan, is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum and Polygon blockchains. It allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events using the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin. This platform has rapidly gained traction, particularly during significant political events like the US Presidential elections, due to its transparency and lower fees compared to traditional betting platforms. In July 2024, Polymarket’s trading volumes surged to $380 million from June’s $100 million, over rising interest in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll. The poll, which is the largest on the platform, has over $505 million worth of bets placed in it.

Polymarket’s monthly trading volume | Source: Dune Analytics

Polymarket stands out for its community-driven approach and diverse market offerings. Users can participate in markets related to politics, sports, entertainment, and more. A key feature of Polymarket is its use of liquidity pools to facilitate trading and real-time market valuations, which ensures fair pricing of shares. Additionally, smart contracts automate the settlement of bets, enhancing trust and reducing the potential for human error. Polymarket's ability to provide real-time data and market sentiment makes it a valuable tool for analysts and casual bettors alike, offering insights that are often more accurate than traditional polls.

Here’s a deep dive into Polymarket and how it works.

2. Hedgehog Markets

Hedgehog Markets is a decentralized prediction market platform launched in 2021 by founder George Yu, a former engineer at Google and Oscar Health. Built on the Solana blockchain, Hedgehog leverages Solana’s high transaction speeds and low fees to offer a seamless user experience. The platform aims to provide a user-friendly way for individuals to trade on their predictions about various events, including politics, economics, and more. Hedgehog has gained attention for its innovative approach to prediction markets, attracting significant seed funding to propel its development and reach.

One of the standout features of Hedgehog Markets is its “no-loss markets,” which combine traditional prediction markets with decentralized finance (DeFi) mechanisms. In these markets, participants can bet on outcomes without risking their initial capital, as their funds are used to generate yield through DeFi protocols while the market is open. This approach not only mitigates risk for users but also provides an engaging way to participate in prediction markets. Additionally, Hedgehog utilizes smart contracts to execute trades and settlements instantly, ensuring transparency and eliminating the need for intermediaries. The platform's integration with stablecoins like USDC further enhances its accessibility and stability for users looking to engage in speculative trading on future events.

3. Projection Finance

Projection Finance is a decentralized prediction market platform launched in 2023. Founded by a team of blockchain enthusiasts, the platform operates on the Ethereum blockchain. It aims to leverage the transparency and security of blockchain technology to offer users a reliable way to predict and bet on the outcomes of various events. Projection Finance uses smart contracts to automate the betting process, ensuring that all transactions are executed fairly and without the need for intermediaries.

Projection Finance stands out for its integration of advanced DeFi features. Users can participate in prediction markets ranging from political events to cryptocurrency price movements and sports outcomes. One unique aspect of Projection Finance is its use of liquidity pools to enhance market efficiency and provide better odds for participants. Additionally, the platform incorporates a staking mechanism that allows users to earn rewards by providing liquidity or correctly predicting event outcomes. This dual approach not only incentivizes participation but also ensures that the markets remain liquid and attractive to a broad range of users. Projection Finance's user-friendly interface and robust security measures make it a compelling option for both new and experienced users in the decentralized prediction market space.

4. SanR.app

SanR.app is a decentralized crypto forecasting platform that was launched in 2021. It was developed by the team at Santiment, a well-known provider of on-chain and social metrics for the cryptocurrency market. SanR operates on the Ethereum blockchain, leveraging smart contracts to ensure transparency and automation in its operations. The platform is designed to help users spot significant movements in the crypto market by analyzing various on-chain data and social signals.

SanR.app offers several unique features that set it apart from other prediction markets. One of its core functionalities is allowing users to monetize their on-chain reputation by publishing market analysis signals. Traders and data scientists can use the platform to identify key market signals, filter out irrelevant information, and make informed predictions about future market movements. SanR integrates social finance (SocialFi) elements, enabling users to follow top traders and their signals on-chain, ensuring transparency and trust.

A notable use case for SanR is its ability to provide real-time market forecasts, which can be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market trends. By utilizing SanR, users can participate in a more informed and data-driven trading environment, potentially improving their trading outcomes and decision-making processes. This platform is particularly beneficial for those who rely on detailed market analysis and wish to engage in a community-driven forecasting ecosystem.

5. PlotX

PlotX, launched in October 2020 by co-founders Ish Goel and Kartic Rakhra, is a decentralized prediction market protocol operating on the Ethereum blockchain. This platform is often dubbed the "Uniswap of Prediction Markets" due to its use of an Automated Market Making (AMM) algorithm to facilitate market creation, settlement, and reward distribution without counterparty risk. PlotX enables users to make predictions on various crypto-pairs such as BTC, ETH, and YFI, with markets created at intervals of 1 hour, 1 day, and 1 week.

With over 200,000 users, PlotX offers several unique features. It is a non-custodial protocol, meaning users retain control over their funds at all times, ensuring security and transparency. The platform employs an AMM algorithm, which helps maintain liquidity and provides real-time market pricing. Additionally, PlotX integrates on-chain governance powered by GovBlocks, allowing PLOT token holders to participate in the platform's decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that the community has a direct say in the platform's development and operations.

A notable use case of PlotX is its focus on high-yield prediction markets, where users can earn rewards by accurately predicting the future value of cryptocurrencies. The platform offers instant rewards and short market cycles, making it attractive for traders looking to capitalize on their market insights quickly. With its integration with Polygon, PlotX also offers cheaper and faster transactions, enhancing the overall user experience. This cross-chain functionality allows users to seamlessly move their PLOT tokens between Ethereum and Polygon, further expanding the platform's accessibility and utility.

6. DexWin

DexWin is a decentralized prediction market platform launched in 2022, operating on the Azuro protocol. The platform focuses on providing a comprehensive and immersive betting experience, particularly in sports betting. DexWin leverages the Ethereum and Polygon blockchains to facilitate seamless and gasless transactions, enhancing user convenience and reducing costs associated with traditional betting systems. This integration allows for quick deposits and withdrawals, all handled through audited smart contracts to ensure security and trustworthiness.

DexWin distinguishes itself with several unique features. It offers gasless transactions on the Polygon network, which significantly reduces transaction fees for users. This feature, combined with the platform's commitment to providing the highest betting odds globally, makes DexWin an attractive option for bettors. The platform supports various sports, including NBA and NCAA basketball, and plans to expand to other sports like football and tennis. Users can place live bets and enjoy a wide range of betting options, from simple wagers to complex parlays.

DexWin's user-friendly interface and decentralized structure ensure that all transactions are transparent and free from counterparty risks. Additionally, the platform offers decentralized casino games, including dice, coin flip, and slots, further broadening its appeal. By allowing users to place bets with stablecoins like USDT, DexWin ensures the stability and security of user funds, even in volatile market conditions.

7. Oriole Insights

Oriole Insights is a decentralized prediction market platform launched in early 2024. It was founded by a team of blockchain enthusiasts focused on enhancing market sentiment analysis and forecasting accuracy. Operating on the Polygon blockchain, Oriole Insights aims to leverage the power of collective wisdom by allowing users to predict the movements of cryptocurrency prices and other market events. The platform provides a robust environment for both newbies and expert analysts to share their predictions and insights.

Oriole Insights stands out with several unique features. One of its core offerings is the UP/DOWN prediction market, where users can forecast whether an asset's price will rise or fall, providing a straightforward way to capture market sentiment. Additionally, the platform offers ROI and initial listing prediction markets, allowing users to predict the initial pricing of new coins or tokens during their listing. This feature is particularly valuable for gaining early insights into new market entries.

Oriole Insights also implements a reputation and rewards system. Users' accurate predictions build their reputation, enhancing their credibility within the community. The platform plans to transition towards more decentralized operations, introducing smart contracts to further ensure transparency and trust. With its analytical tools and dashboard, Oriole Insights provides a comprehensive environment for users to engage in predictive forecasting and improve their market strategies.

8. Upcoming: Drift Protocol

Drift Protocol, launched in 2021, is a Solana-based DEX (decentralized exchange). Founded by a team of blockchain enthusiasts, Drift initially gained prominence as a perpetual DEX. It has attracted over 195,000 users and generated more than $34.5 billion in trading volume. Drift plans to expand its offerings by launching a prediction marketplace, capitalizing on the excitement surrounding major events such as the upcoming U.S. Presidential election. This new feature aims to provide users with a reliable platform to trade on future event outcomes in a fully decentralized and permissionless manner. Drift Protocol anticipates launching its prediction market in mid-August 2024. This new feature will allow users to trade future event outcomes in a fully decentralized and permissionless manner, utilizing Solana's high-speed and low-cost infrastructure for an efficient experience.

Drift Protocol's prediction marketplace sets itself apart with several unique features. It allows users to trade prediction markets using any asset, providing greater flexibility and accessibility. The platform is designed to be user-friendly, with options for both email signup and Solana wallet connectivity, broadening its appeal to a wider audience. Drift's marketplace promises to offer a superior user experience for betting on market outcomes, leveraging the belief that "markets are aware of the truth before traditional news outlets."

One of the key attractions is "The Election Center," a dedicated section for trading predictions related to the U.S. Presidential election. This center features a fun, light-hearted interface where users can swap PolitFi meme coins like TREMP and KAMA. Drift Protocol also plans to integrate Solana Blinks technology, enabling prediction market interactions directly within social media platforms. This innovative approach, combined with Solana's high performance and accessibility, positions Drift Protocol to challenge established prediction markets like Polymarket and attract more users and liquidity to the Solana ecosystem.

Blockchain oracles are third-party services that connect blockchains to external data sources. They fetch real-world data and feed it to smart contracts, enabling them to interact with information outside the blockchain. For instance, oracles can provide data on weather conditions, sports scores, election results, and more. This data is crucial for executing smart contracts accurately based on real-world events.

Oracles ensure trust and accuracy in prediction markets by using multiple verification methods. They gather data from several reliable sources and use consensus mechanisms to validate this information. Some oracles incentivize accurate reporting by rewarding users who provide truthful data and penalizing those who do not. This system reduces the risk of tampering and ensures the integrity of the information used to determine market outcomes. By relying on a decentralized network of nodes, oracles eliminate single points of failure, making the system more secure and trustworthy.

Learn about the top blockchain oracles in the crypto market.

Here are some of the challenges and future opportunities for decentralized prediction markets to watch out for:

Scalability Issues: Scalability remains a major challenge for decentralized prediction markets. Current blockchain networks can struggle with high transaction volumes, leading to slower processing times and higher fees. Solutions like layer-2 scaling and rollups are being developed to address these issues, but widespread implementation is still a work in progress.
Regulatory Challenges: Regulatory uncertainty is another significant hurdle. Prediction markets can be classified as gambling in some jurisdictions, leading to legal complications. As these markets grow, they will likely face increased scrutiny from regulators. Establishing clear and supportive regulatory frameworks is essential for the sustainable development of decentralized prediction markets.
Integration with Other DeFi Applications: Integrating prediction markets with other DeFi applications presents both opportunities and challenges. Such integrations could create innovative financial products, like using prediction markets for hedging risks in DeFi protocols. However, achieving seamless interoperability between different blockchain platforms and applications requires advanced technical solutions and collaborative efforts within the blockchain community.

Decentralized prediction markets leverage blockchain technology to offer a transparent, secure, and accessible platform for betting on future events. Oracles play a crucial role in providing accurate and trustworthy data to these markets. Despite challenges like scalability and regulatory issues, the potential for growth and integration with other DeFi applications is significant.

The future of decentralized prediction markets looks promising. As blockchain technology advances and regulatory frameworks evolve, these markets will become more efficient and reliable. Improved scalability solutions and better integration with DeFi applications will further enhance their utility and adoption. By harnessing the collective intelligence of participants, decentralized prediction markets can provide valuable insights and drive innovation across various sectors.

However, it is important to remember the risks involved. Market volatility, potential legal issues, and the accuracy of data provided by oracles can impact the outcomes. Always conduct thorough research and understand the risks before participating in these markets.

1. How does a prediction market make money?

Prediction markets make money by taking a small fee from each transaction. This can include fees for placing bets, creating markets, or withdrawing funds. Typically, these fees range from 1% to 2% of the net earnings from winning positions, ensuring the platform remains financially sustainable while encouraging high trading volumes and liquidity.

2. Is a decentralized prediction market legit?

Yes, decentralized prediction markets are legitimate. Platforms like Polymarket and Augur use blockchain technology to ensure transparency and security through smart contracts, which make manipulation difficult. However, you must verify the specific platform's credibility and regulatory status, as some decentralized prediction markets are not regulated in certain regions, potentially leading to legal challenges.

3. Can you earn money on decentralized prediction markets?

Yes, you can earn money on prediction markets by making accurate predictions about future events. If your prediction is correct, you earn a payout based on the amount wagered and the odds at the time of the bet. However, there is also the potential for losses if your prediction is incorrect, as you could lose the amount you wagered.

4. What are the transaction fees for blockchain-based prediction markets?

Transaction fees in prediction markets vary by platform. For example, Polymarket charges a 2% fee on net earnings from winning positions. Augur has a similar fee structure, typically around 1.5% for all betting activities. These fees are generally low to keep the platforms accessible and encourage active participation.

5. Are decentralized prediction markets safe?

Yes, decentralized prediction markets are generally safe. They use smart contracts to ensure fair and transparent transactions; so, be aware of the risks of smart contract hacks and make sure the platforms you use are verified in their security measures. Additionally, you should also be aware of market volatility and ensure you participate only in well-defined markets to avoid disputes over outcomes.