$4 Billion Crypto Bets on Election Day, Bitcoin Reaches New High and More: Nov 6

Bitcoin is currently priced at $73, 901, showing a +6.55% increase, while Ethereum is at $2,589, up by +6.83% in the past 24 hours. The market's 24-hour long/short ratio in the futures market was almost balanced at 50.1% long versus 49.9% short positions. The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, was at 70 yesterday and also stayed at the Greed level today at 70 today. As the U.S. presidential election outcome nears, the crypto world is experiencing a surge in activity. From political memecoins tied to election outcomes today to major fund inflows driven by political hype, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency has created a whirlwind of speculation and opportunity. 

1. The voting data from 7 swing states in the U.S. election will be announced by noon on November 6.

2. Prediction market Kalshi tops the Apple App Store free apps chart, with Polymarket in second place. Polymarket is paying U.S. influencers to promote election betting services.

3. Mt.Gox address transfers 2,000 BTC to an unknown wallet, worth $136 million.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative.me 

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Read More: Crypto Market Braces for Election Volatility, November Token Unlocks, and Peanut Memecoins: Nov 4

The convergence of political betting, artificial intelligence hardware, and augmented reality highlights the transformative potential of technology and finance across industries. With nearly $4 billion bet on the U.S. presidential race, new ventures in AI-driven consumer robotics, and Apple’s anticipated entry into AR, this dynamic interplay between finance, tech, and influence is shaping the future.

Source: Polymarket

The 2024 U.S. presidential race has led to an unprecedented spike in prediction market activity, drawing in nearly $4 billion in political bets. At the forefront is Web3-native Polymarket, which dominates with around $3.3 billion in trade volumes, even though it faces restrictions in the U.S. Polymarket's appeal reflects a growing interest in decentralized platforms that allow users to wager on real-world events. Its success has set the standard for political betting, establishing itself as the go-to platform for decentralized, blockchain-driven predictions.

Following close behind are U.S.-based platforms like Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers, which collectively have attracted over $500 million in betting volumes. These platforms are gaining traction, especially after regulatory approval allowed them to host election betting for the first time. As betting odds on candidates fluctuate, Donald Trump holds a strong lead across prediction markets, with odds on Polymarket reaching nearly 82.5% and other platforms showing similar figures. This trend has captured the attention of a diverse range of investors who are eager to participate in high-stakes political events.

Source: Kalshi

Kalshi’s recent debut in election betting has sparked fierce competition among prediction platforms, paving the way for similar ventures in the U.S. market. Kalshi's approval to operate election markets came after a landmark court victory, allowing it to set a precedent for legally approved election betting in the U.S. This historic decision has encouraged other platforms to join, rapidly increasing competition and participation.

Robinhood entered the prediction space with a bang, launching election contracts in October and trading over 200 million contracts related to the presidential race. Interactive Brokers has also stepped in, attracting $50 million in volume. In a bid to streamline user experience, Kalshi introduced deposits in USD Coin (USDC) and even added USDC deposits from Polygon, which allows blockchain-based transfers, simplifying the process for crypto-savvy bettors. Together, these companies are challenging the decentralized giant Polymarket, fostering a competitive environment that may redefine how Americans approach political betting.

Source: X

In the realm of artificial intelligence, OpenAI’s creation of a consumer hardware division reflects its ambition to bring AI-driven products directly into consumers’ lives. This division, led by Caitlin Kalinowski—a former Meta engineer who played a key role in the development of AR hardware like the Orion glasses—signals OpenAI's shift from purely software-based AI models to tangible, AI-powered devices. Kalinowski’s background in AR, combined with her experience in large-scale hardware projects at Meta and Apple, uniquely positions her to drive OpenAI's hardware ambitions.

The move comes at a time when AI hardware is booming, driven by companies like Nvidia and TSMC. Although the industry has seen several attempts at integrating AI into consumer products, most, like Amazon’s smart speakers, have yet to achieve the mass market appeal of smartphones. OpenAI’s new approach may involve partnerships with major manufacturers rather than in-house production, allowing the company to focus on refining AI models while tapping into established supply chains. This strategy could fast-track AI hardware into the hands of everyday users and potentially create the long-awaited "iPhone moment" for AI-powered devices.

Election Day has also brought excitement to the cryptocurrency market, with memecoins inspired by candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris experiencing dramatic trading activity. As Trump embraces the label of “crypto candidate,” Trump-themed memecoins, such as MAGA and TRUMP, have attracted significant attention despite recent drops in market value. These tokens, designed with no official political affiliation, are a popular choice among traders looking to make speculative bets on the election outcome. Tokens like MAGA and Super Trump (STRUMP) command large market caps, though they have seen declines of up to 30% in recent weeks. Still, the high volatility surrounding these tokens provides ample opportunity for traders seeking quick profits.

Conversely, Harris-themed tokens, while fewer in number, are on the rise. The largest, “Kamala Horris” (KAMA), surged 40% over the past week, reflecting a counter-movement among traders aligning with her platform. The hype around these tokens is evident in the Ethereum and Solana blockchains, which have seen hundreds of new tokens referencing Trump and Harris. The crypto community’s interest in these political tokens underscores a cultural shift where digital assets are used not only as speculative instruments but as a form of political expression.

Read More: Top PolitiFi and Trump-Themed Coins Amid US Elections 2024

Source: Apple 

Apple’s potential entry into the augmented reality (AR) market could be a game-changer for the tech industry. Known for revolutionizing each category it enters, Apple’s foray into AR has the potential to shake up the market, directly challenging Meta's stronghold in the AR and Metaverse space. According to reports, Apple is working on smart glasses to rival Meta’s Orion, leveraging its reputation for user-friendly, high-quality design to attract consumers who may be hesitant about AR.

Apple’s focus on expanding its product line aligns with its broader strategy to push boundaries in wearable technology, which includes iPhones, Apple Watches, and AirPods. The development of an AR product would not only place Apple in direct competition with Meta but could also stimulate innovation across the industry. As the AR space becomes more crowded, Apple’s entry could provide the breakthrough needed to bring AR into the mainstream. If successful, Apple’s AR venture could significantly contribute to its growth trajectory, potentially setting another market cap milestone for the company.

The surge in Election Day betting, the push for consumer-oriented AI hardware, and Apple’s bold AR ambitions highlight a rapidly changing landscape where politics, technology, and finance intertwine. Prediction markets reflect the public’s growing interest in speculative finance, while OpenAI’s hardware division and Apple’s AR aspirations showcase advancements that could redefine consumer technology. As these trends converge, the actions of major players like Polymarket, OpenAI, and Apple will shape how technology integrates into our daily lives, making the future of politics, AI, and AR both exciting and unpredictable. The race for dominance is on, and the leaders in these sectors are poised to drive the next wave of digital transformation.