As the US presidential election draws near, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing significant price volatility. With the odds narrowing between the candidates, Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects both political and economic jitters among investors. This analysis explores how the election’s outcome could impact BTC’s trajectory, with expert insights suggesting a mix of possible highs and potential pullbacks.

• Bitcoin’s price has experienced sharp swings, dipping below $69,000 and triggering nearly $350 million in liquidations ahead of the US election.

• A Trump win is seen as potentially bullish for Bitcoin, with projections of BTC reaching $100,000 or more due to his pro-crypto stance. In contrast, a Harris victory could introduce more regulation, potentially tempering Bitcoin's upward momentum.

• Amid economic concerns, Bitcoin remains attractive as a hedge against inflation and market instability, drawing interest from both retail and institutional investors.

• Recent SEC approvals of Bitcoin ETFs have boosted BTC’s stability and liquidity, with increasing institutional investments contributing to long-term growth potential.

• Key support around $66,200 and resistance at $73,800 are critical levels; breaking either could signal significant price movement as election day approaches.

BTC/USDT price chart | Source: KuCoin

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated considerably, nearing an all-time high before pulling back sharply. After a surge to almost $73,300, Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on November 3, triggering nearly $350 million in liquidations across both long and short positions, according to data from CoinGlass. As of now, BTC remains under this key level, trading around $68,500, but market conditions remain tense as election day approaches.

Bitcoin price prediction for November on Polymarket | Source: Polymarket 

The Bitcoin market has been closely watching the election polls, particularly on Polymarket, where Trump initially held a lead but recently saw his odds dip from 67% to 56%. Trump’s pro-crypto stance includes pledges to reshape the regulatory environment by removing obstacles, which many believe could open doors for Bitcoin adoption and support a BTC price rally if he wins. In contrast, Harris has taken a more cautious approach, advocating for a framework focused on consumer protection and market transparency. This regulatory stance could temper Bitcoin’s upward momentum if she wins, as the market may brace for tighter oversight.

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Potential Market Scenarios

Trump vs. Kamala: who’s the next US President | Source: Polymarket 

• Trump Win: Market sentiment suggests Bitcoin could rally to $100,000 or beyond if Trump secures the presidency. His promise to make the US a “crypto capital” resonates with pro-crypto investors, who see his leadership as an opportunity to remove perceived regulatory hurdles.

• Harris Win: Analysts predict a more restrained Bitcoin response if Harris prevails. With a focus on consumer protection, her administration may prioritize regulatory clarity without the deregulatory zeal Trump has proposed. However, this approach could also support sustainable growth in the long term by establishing clearer rules for institutional involvement.

According to Greg Magadini from Amberdata, BTC could experience a $6,000–$8,000 price swing post-election. The annualized forward volatility derived from options trading on platforms suggests a range of potential price movements, with a 1.5-sigma (standard deviation) scenario likely to drive BTC’s price by as much as $8,000. This projection is influenced by the tight race between Trump and Harris, which heightens market uncertainty.

Magadini noted that options traders are preparing for possible price swings by buying call options at strikes of $70,000, $85,000, and $90,000, indicating bullish expectations. This trend is mirrored in the CME options market, where calls are pricing higher than puts, reflecting optimistic sentiment despite current spot price weakness.

Joshua Lim, co-founder of Arbelos Markets, added that Bitcoin’s volatility curve points to an expected 7%-8% price movement around critical events, including the Fed’s interest rate decision and election results. These figures suggest heightened activity as investors gear up for post-election shifts.

Read more: Top Hedging Strategies to Protect Your Portfolio in the Crypto Market in 2024-2025

Source: Henrik Zeberg on X 

Bitcoin’s recent price action highlights critical support and resistance levels, with $66,200 identified by analysts as a local bottom. If BTC dips below this level, it may experience further downward pressure. On the upside, breaking resistance near $73,800 could indicate renewed bullish momentum. Technical indicators such as the Ichimoku cloud and Fibonacci retracement suggest that Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture, with the potential for significant movement as election day approaches.

• Support Levels: The area around $66,200 has been identified as a “must-bounce zone” for Bitcoin. Failure to hold this support could signal a deeper correction.

• Resistance Levels: A breakthrough past $73,800 could set the stage for Bitcoin to test new highs, possibly reaching $78,000 or more in the short term.

In addition to the upcoming 2024 US elections, Bitcoin price faces considerable volatility due to other key factors, especially: 

Bitcoin as a Hedge in a Fragile Economic Environment

The current economic backdrop, including soaring national debt and inflation concerns, has made Bitcoin an attractive hedge for investors. BTC’s decentralized nature and capped supply create an appeal as a safe-haven asset amid traditional market instability. Notably, experts like Henrik Zeberg predict that Bitcoin’s resilience could drive its price higher despite political uncertainties. In this light, BTC’s function as a financial hedge could persist, regardless of the election outcome.

The Role of Regulatory Clarity and Spot ETFs in BTC Growth

Bitcoin ETF inflows | Source: CoinGlass 

A significant driver of Bitcoin’s recent price movements has been the anticipation of regulatory clarity, particularly around spot Bitcoin ETFs. With the SEC’s approval of ETFs, Bitcoin has seen increased liquidity and stability. Institutional players like BlackRock are now able to offer Bitcoin exposure to traditional investors, creating a bridge between the crypto and financial markets. This dynamic has contributed to BTC’s recent price stability and positions it for potential long-term growth under a favorable regulatory framework.

The 2024 US presidential election presents a unique inflection point for Bitcoin. While the election’s outcome will likely influence short-term market sentiment, Bitcoin’s broader trajectory remains supported by strong fundamentals. From regulatory clarity to its role as a hedge against economic instability, BTC’s appeal continues to grow. Experts like 10x Research and Henrik Zeberg forecast that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or higher in the coming years, with institutional interest and economic factors driving demand.

In the days ahead, heightened volatility is expected, but Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains intact. Whether fueled by Trump’s pro-crypto stance or Harris’s regulatory balance, Bitcoin’s march towards new highs seems inevitable. As the election unfolds, Bitcoin investors should keep an eye on key technical levels and consider the broader economic backdrop to navigate potential price movements.

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