Bitcoin Price Rebounds Past $63,000: Will It Hit $70K in July?

Week 26 saw a significant decline in the crypto market, with Bitcoin shedding around 16% of its value. Bitvavo's detailed analysis attributes this downturn to a general atmosphere of uncertainty rather than specific events.

• Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, losing 16% of its value in Week 26, attributed by Bitvavo to a general market uncertainty.

• Weekend trading volumes for Bitcoin have reached historic lows, and the impending Mt. Gox repayment could further increase selling pressure.

• On-chain indicators suggest profit-taking among investors, but Bitcoin's 200-day average remains stable, with potential bullish reversal targets at $64,770.

Bitcoin's price has been stagnant recently, with investors closely monitoring inflation metrics and anticipating potential Federal Reserve actions. Analysts predict rough waters ahead, with several bearish indicators suggesting increased selling pressure in July.

A significant bearish event in June was the announcement of Mt. Gox repayments. Starting in early July 2024, Mt. Gox will repay 140,000 BTC (worth around $9 billion) to its creditors. This long-awaited repayment follows a decade after the exchange's collapse. Analysts fear this distribution could lead to increased selling pressure, further impacting Bitcoin's price.

Read more: Will $10 Billion in Bitcoin Repayments From Mt. Gox Weaken BTC Price?

Bitcoin's trading volume on weekends has dropped to its lowest level in history, according to TheBlock. In 2019, up to 28% of Bitcoin trading occurred on weekends; in 2024, this figure has fallen to 16%. Kaiko's report suggests that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs contributes to this decline, as ETF trading only occurs during the stock market's open hours on weekdays. Consequently, the last hour of market trading has become a popular time for Bitcoin trading.

The closures of crypto-friendly Signature and Silicon Valley banks in March 2023 have also influenced market dynamics, as per a news report on Cointelegraph. These banks operated 24/7 networks, allowing large buy and sell orders for crypto. Since their closures, market makers have been less inclined to provide liquidity in a low-volume environment.

Runes daily transactions on Bitcoin network | Source: Dune Analytics

Recent data from Dune Analytics reveals a dramatic decrease in activity for the Runes token standard on the Bitcoin blockchain, with daily transactions plummeting by over 88% from their peak in June. Between June 22-28, average daily Runes transactions dropped to 37,820, a 90% decline from the 331,040 recorded between June 9-15, and on June 24, transactions hit a low of 23,238, the lowest since the protocol’s launch on April 20, 2024. 

This decline has significantly impacted Bitcoin miner fees, with Runes contributing less than 2 Bitcoin in fees over the past six days, down from 884 Bitcoin on April 24. The Runes protocol, created by Ordinals' Casey Rodarmor, was intended to efficiently create new tokens on the Bitcoin network, but recent data shows Runes transactions now account for only 4.9% to 11.1% of all Bitcoin transactions in the past week. The reduction in network fees, coupled with Bitcoin’s price decline, has led to a near-record low in Bitcoin’s hash price, a key indicator of miner revenue, and Bitcoin miner reserves have fallen to 1.90 million Bitcoin, the lowest level in over 14 years.

Here’s a look at key on-chain indicators from a report in Cointelegraph and what they reveal about Bitcoin investors’ preferences: 

Bitcoin’s 30-day average aSOPR | Source: Cointelegraph 

1. Profit-Taking: On-chain indicators reveal increasing profit-taking among Bitcoin investors. The 30-day average of Bitcoin's Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has risen from 1 to 1.03 since May, indicating more investors are selling at a profit. This trend often precedes market corrections.

2. Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL): The NUPL metric suggests potential upside exhaustion among Bitcoin buyers. A NUPL reading over 0 indicates investors are in profit, with an increasing trend hinting at a market correction. Currently, the 30-day average NUPL stands at 0.54.

3. Increased Bitcoin Ownership: Glassnode data shows a consistent rise in the number of wallet addresses holding at least one Bitcoin. Over a million wallets now hold at least one Bitcoin, supporting a bullish outlook.

Read more: Bitcoin’s Price Plummets to $61,000: Key Factors Behind the Recent Decline

BTC/USDT price chart | KuCoin 

Bitcoin's 4-hour chart indicates a possible breakdown of a bull pennant. This pattern, formed during a price consolidation following a strong downward move, suggests a potential drop to around $56,000 if the lower trendline is breached. Conversely, a bullish reversal could target $64,770 if Bitcoin breaks above the 50-4H EMA at around $61,925.

Bitvavo highlights that Bitcoin's drop to $57,000 marks the second time it has reached the bottom of a price range that has persisted for nearly four months. This consolidation period mirrors that observed last summer, with Bitcoin's price stabilizing for over half a year. Despite recent fluctuations, Bitcoin remains above its 200-day long-term average. Bitvavo predicts a potential breakout above $76,000, albeit with caution given the market's unpredictability.

The recent decline in Bitcoin's value is attributed to a global atmosphere of uncertainty. Investors face mixed economic signals and unpredictable market movements, leading to increased concerns and volatility. This nervousness underscores the importance of thorough market analysis and a thoughtful investment strategy.

Other Analyst Predictions for BTC Indicate Gains  

Quinten Francois, an analyst and trader, predicts a 2016-2017 style bull run for Bitcoin, fueled by gains observed in previous post-halving cycles. Another analyst, @therationalroot, identifies Q3 as a crucial period for Bitcoin price gains.

The last week of the first half year, week 26, of 2024 highlighted the volatile nature of the crypto market, with significant factors influencing Bitcoin's price movements. While bearish indicators suggest potential challenges ahead, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts predicting possible bullish reversals and significant gains in the upcoming months.