On October 21, investors took advantage of Bitcoin’s 3% dip, adding $329 million to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This marked the third time in four trading days that IBIT recorded over $300 million in inflows, reaffirming its dominance in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.

• BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) gained $329M in inflows on October 21, despite Bitcoin’s 3% dip.

• Fidelity's Bitcoin fund followed with $5.9M in inflows, while other ETFs posted negative or flat flows.

• Bitcoin’s price dropped to $66,975 after failing to break the $70,000 resistance. Analysts predict a pullback to $62,000, following Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in five months. A quantile model suggests Bitcoin could range between $55,000 and $285,000 by 2025.

• Michael Saylor faced backlash over promoting custodial solutions for Bitcoin.

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with a $5.9 million inflow, while other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw flat or negative flows. This influx suggests investors continue to see Bitcoin as a long-term asset despite recent volatility.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows | Source: Farside Investors 

Bitcoin’s recent dip to $66,975 came after a failed attempt to break the $70,000 resistance. This decline disrupted a 10-day rally fueled by election-related speculation. Analysts like Emperor predict a pullback to $62,000, signaling that further consolidation may be on the horizon.

Despite the price correction, Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract strong inflows, reflecting investor confidence. With IBIT now surpassing $23 billion in total net inflows, BlackRock’s product stands as one of the top-performing ETFs of 2024, alongside Vanguard and BlackRock’s S&P 500 funds.

Read more: Best Spot Bitcoin ETFs to Buy in 2024

BTC/USDT vs S&P 500 | Source: TradingView 

Bitcoin's 40-day correlation with the S&P 500 remains above 80%, indicating that macroeconomic factors continue to influence both asset classes. While Bitcoin has historically decoupled from traditional markets during bull runs, recent trends suggest a tight alignment with equities.

Analysts believe that Bitcoin must decouple from stocks to regain its position as a non-correlated asset. In addition, Bitcoin’s growing correlation with gold suggests that investors are increasingly using it as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.

Read more: The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model: A Comprehensive Guide

Source: X 

Amid ongoing price volatility, analysts like Sina have employed a quantile model to predict Bitcoin’s market behavior. The model divides Bitcoin’s price trajectory into three zones—cold, warm, and hot—based on probability ranges:

• Cold Zone (33% percentile): $55,000 to $85,000

• Warm Zone (33%-66% percentile): $85,000 to $136,000

• Hot Zone (66%-99% percentile): $136,000 to $285,000

Sina emphasized that Bitcoin tends to cycle between these zones over time. If Bitcoin stays within the cold zone throughout 2025, it presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors. In contrast, the hot zone represents peak market conditions, marked by rapid reversals and profit-taking.

MicroStrategy’s chairman, Michael Saylor, sparked controversy on October 21 by promoting custodial solutions for Bitcoin through “too big to fail” financial institutions. Saylor's shift contrasts with his earlier stance on self-custody, which he once championed as essential for decentralization.

During an interview, Saylor dismissed concerns about government interference, referring to self-custody advocates as “paranoid crypto-anarchists.” He argued that large institutions would better safeguard Bitcoin assets, triggering criticism from Bitcoin advocates.

Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, warned that Saylor’s pivot undermines Bitcoin’s ethos of financial sovereignty. Other analysts speculated that MicroStrategy’s long-term goal might involve positioning itself as a Bitcoin bank, further driving the narrative in favor of institutional custody.

Read more: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings and Purchase History: A Strategic Overview

BlackRock’s IBIT continues to attract significant inflows, signaling sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin. While Bitcoin's recent dip to $66,975 has sparked predictions of further pullbacks, the resilience of ETF flows suggests long-term optimism among investors.

Saylor's pivot towards custodial solutions has reignited debates about Bitcoin’s core philosophy. However, the quantile model indicates a broad range for Bitcoin’s potential growth, with a peak price projection of $285,000 by 2025.

As Bitcoin consolidates near $67,000, investors will be watching for a move above $68,500 to maintain bullish momentum. For now, the continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reflect confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, even amid short-term corrections.

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