On October 21, investors took advantage of Bitcoin’s 3% dip, adding $329 million to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This marked the third time in four trading days that IBIT recorded over $300 million in inflows, reaffirming its dominance in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.
Quick Take
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BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) gained $329M in inflows on October 21, despite Bitcoin’s 3% dip.
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Fidelity's Bitcoin fund followed with $5.9M in inflows, while other ETFs posted negative or flat flows.
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Bitcoin’s price dropped to $66,975 after failing to break the $70,000 resistance. Analysts predict a pullback to $62,000, following Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in five months. A quantile model suggests Bitcoin could range between $55,000 and $285,000 by 2025.
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Michael Saylor faced backlash over promoting custodial solutions for Bitcoin.
Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with a $5.9 million inflow, while other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw flat or negative flows. This influx suggests investors continue to see Bitcoin as a long-term asset despite recent volatility.
Bitcoin’s Price Correction and ETF Performance
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows | Source: Farside Investors
Bitcoin’s recent dip to $66,975 came after a failed attempt to break the $70,000 resistance. This decline disrupted a 10-day rally fueled by election-related speculation. Analysts like Emperor predict a pullback to $62,000, signaling that further consolidation may be on the horizon.
Despite the price correction, Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract strong inflows, reflecting investor confidence. With IBIT now surpassing $23 billion in total net inflows, BlackRock’s product stands as one of the top-performing ETFs of 2024, alongside Vanguard and BlackRock’s S&P 500 funds.
Read more: Best Spot Bitcoin ETFs to Buy in 2024
Bitcoin’s Correlation with Traditional Markets Remains High
BTC/USDT vs S&P 500 | Source: TradingView
Bitcoin's 40-day correlation with the S&P 500 remains above 80%, indicating that macroeconomic factors continue to influence both asset classes. While Bitcoin has historically decoupled from traditional markets during bull runs, recent trends suggest a tight alignment with equities.
Analysts believe that Bitcoin must decouple from stocks to regain its position as a non-correlated asset. In addition, Bitcoin’s growing correlation with gold suggests that investors are increasingly using it as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.
Read more: The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model: A Comprehensive Guide
Quantile Model Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach as High as $285K in 2025
Source: X
Amid ongoing price volatility, analysts like Sina have employed a quantile model to predict Bitcoin’s market behavior. The model divides Bitcoin’s price trajectory into three zones—cold, warm, and hot—based on probability ranges:
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Cold Zone (33% percentile): $55,000 to $85,000
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Warm Zone (33%-66% percentile): $85,000 to $136,000
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Hot Zone (66%-99% percentile): $136,000 to $285,000
Sina emphasized that Bitcoin tends to cycle between these zones over time. If Bitcoin stays within the cold zone throughout 2025, it presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors. In contrast, the hot zone represents peak market conditions, marked by rapid reversals and profit-taking.
Michael Saylor Promotes Custodial Bitcoin Solutions
MicroStrategy’s chairman, Michael Saylor, sparked controversy on October 21 by promoting custodial solutions for Bitcoin through “too big to fail” financial institutions. Saylor's shift contrasts with his earlier stance on self-custody, which he once championed as essential for decentralization.
During an interview, Saylor dismissed concerns about government interference, referring to self-custody advocates as “paranoid crypto-anarchists.” He argued that large institutions would better safeguard Bitcoin assets, triggering criticism from Bitcoin advocates.
Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, warned that Saylor’s pivot undermines Bitcoin’s ethos of financial sovereignty. Other analysts speculated that MicroStrategy’s long-term goal might involve positioning itself as a Bitcoin bank, further driving the narrative in favor of institutional custody.
Read more: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings and Purchase History: A Strategic Overview
Conclusion: Bitcoin ETFs Thrive Despite Volatility
BlackRock’s IBIT continues to attract significant inflows, signaling sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin. While Bitcoin's recent dip to $66,975 has sparked predictions of further pullbacks, the resilience of ETF flows suggests long-term optimism among investors.
Saylor's pivot towards custodial solutions has reignited debates about Bitcoin’s core philosophy. However, the quantile model indicates a broad range for Bitcoin’s potential growth, with a peak price projection of $285,000 by 2025.
As Bitcoin consolidates near $67,000, investors will be watching for a move above $68,500 to maintain bullish momentum. For now, the continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reflect confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, even amid short-term corrections.
Read more: Stripe Acquires Bridge for $1.1B, Pump.fun Launches Advanced Terminal and More: Oct 22
