Crypto Market Braces for Election Volatility, November Token Unlocks, and Peanut Memecoins: Nov 4

At 8:00 AM UTC+8, Bitcoin was priced at $69,203, showing a -0.86% decrease, while Ethereum stood at $2,476, down by -1.46%. The market's 24-hour long/short ratio in the futures market was almost balanced at 48.7% long versus 51.3% short positions. The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, was at 74 yesterday, indicating Greed level and has decreased to 70 today, maintaining the crypto market at the Greed territory. 

1. The U.S. will begin its 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, with major polls showing a close race between Trump and Harris.

2. Tether's secured loans in reserves have reached a total of $6.72 billion, fully backed by liquid assets.

3. Ethereum's net supply increased by 11,609 coins over the past seven days.

4. On Polymarket, Trump's probability of being elected president dropped to 56.6%, while Harris's rose to 43.6%.

5. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $2.22 billion this week.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative.me 

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The crypto market is buzzing with major developments. Traders and investors are preparing for a mix of heightened BTC and ETH volatility as election results loom, substantial token unlocks this month, and a surge in Peanut-themed memecoins on Solana. Each of these events holds the potential to significantly impact the market, making it crucial to understand the details and what might come next.

BTC/USDT price chart | Source: KuCoin 

Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently experiencing a surge in volatility, largely driven by uncertainty surrounding upcoming election results. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, reported that Bitcoin's forward volatility has jumped to 80.3%, compared to its previous level of 72.2%. Ethereum, too, saw its volatility rise, moving from 75.4% to 82.9%. This sharp increase points to traders adjusting their positions and hedging against potential impacts.

ETH/USDT price chart | Source: KuCoin

The upcoming election brings an elevated chance of significant price swings. Forster suggests a two-thirds probability of substantial price movements on election night, with Bitcoin's expected price range falling between -9% and +9.9%. Ethereum, meanwhile, is expected to move within a slightly broader range of -9.3% to +10.2%. These anticipated fluctuations are signs of increased market risk, but they also suggest opportunities for those prepared to navigate the volatility.

Despite the potential for rapid price changes, market sentiment appears to lean bullish. The total open interest for BTC call options stands at 1,179 contracts, compared to 885 contracts for put options. This implies that many traders are hopeful for a positive outcome once the election dust settles. The choices traders are making show confidence, at least for now, that any political outcomes may ultimately have a favorable influence on crypto.

November is a crucial month for the release of locked crypto assets, with a staggering $2.68 billion in tokens set to be unlocked, as reported by Tokenomist. This includes over $900 million that will be released at once, often called a "cliff unlock," while around $1.7 billion will be gradually unlocked throughout the month.

Unlock progress for the MEME token | Source: Tokenomist

Token unlocks are significant because they can create substantial pressure on token prices, especially when large quantities hit the market. Notable projects releasing tokens this month include Memecoin (MEME), Aptos (APT), Arbitrum (ARB), and Avalanche (AVAX). Memecoin alone will see 3.45 billion tokens unlocked, with an estimated value of $37.8 million. These releases come in two forms: cliff unlocks and linear daily releases of over 10 million tokens, worth approximately $117,000 each day. This influx of supply could lead to price swings, especially as Memecoin's price remains 81% below its peak earlier this year.

Arbitrum, a well-known Ethereum layer-2 solution, will also release a significant amount—92.65 million tokens worth $45 million. These tokens are allocated to early investors, team members, and advisors. This follows Arbitrum’s substantial release back in March, when they unlocked $2.32 billion worth of tokens. These kinds of releases can impact token price if supply exceeds current market demand, especially if early holders choose to cash out.

The token unlocks could bring a ripple effect throughout the market. An increase in available supply may create downward pressure on prices, but it also provides an opportunity for those looking to accumulate tokens at a discount. Investors will need to monitor how these releases play out and whether new demand will be sufficient to offset the increased supply.

Peanut the Squirrel memecoins on Solana. Source: Dexscreener

The DeFi market, especially on Solana, has seen a new frenzy sparked by an unusual character—a squirrel named "Peanut." This viral sensation has inspired memecoin creators to flood the market with Peanut-themed tokens, resulting in eye-catching price action and notable market activity.

Peanut's unexpected rise in popularity led to the creation of several Peanut-themed tokens on the Solana network. Among them, "Peanut the Squirrel" (PNUT) has made a particularly large impact, recording a trading volume of nearly $300 million and over 200,000 transactions. PNUT's market capitalization reached a peak of $120 million, though it has since corrected and currently stands at $100 million. The trading volume and rapid price changes indicate the appeal of these kinds of niche, culture-driven tokens that tend to gain popularity overnight.

Another Peanut-themed token achieved a market cap of $80 million with trading volume surpassing $110 million. This shows that the trend is not limited to one blockchain and suggests that the appeal of memecoins remains strong, especially those tied to pop culture or viral stories.

Adding to this memecoin frenzy, a raccoon-themed token—based on Peanut’s raccoon companion—also entered the scene. Named "First Convicted Raccoon" (FRED), the token recorded nearly 150,000 transactions and a trading volume of $83 million, though its market cap was only $8.2 million. Despite being smaller in scale, FRED’s rapid traction highlights how quickly meme-driven projects can capture the market’s attention, even if their long-term viability remains questionable.

These memecoins are more than just hype—they provide a reflection of how quickly narratives can drive market action in the crypto world. While most of these tokens may not hold long-term value, they represent the speculative aspect of DeFi, where community, pop culture, and fun play significant roles.

Read more: Top Solana Memecoins to Watch in 2024

The crypto market is in a phase of high activity and uncertainty. Volatility is increasing for major assets like BTC and ETH due to upcoming election results, and billions in tokens are set to unlock throughout November, which could create both opportunities and risks for investors. Meanwhile, the rise of Peanut-themed memecoins on Solana shows that the speculative, culture-driven aspect of crypto remains alive and well.

For traders and investors, staying on top of these dynamic developments is essential. Each event—the election, token unlocks, and the memecoin craze—has the potential to shift market conditions rapidly. As always in crypto, being prepared and informed is the key to navigating these unpredictable waters.