Only 12.7% of Crypto Wallets on Polymarket Make Profits, Satoshi Still a Mystery, BTC Dips, and More: Oct 10

In today’s crypto news, OpenAI accuses tech mogul Elon Musk of harassment in a heated legal battle, new data reveals that only 12.7% of Polymarket users have made a profit on bets, and HBO’s controversial Bitcoin documentary claims that Peter Todd is the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto. Furthermore, Bitcoin slips below $61K despite Fed’s dovish outlook.

The crypto market showed neutral sentiments today as major coins experienced price small decreases. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index decreased from 49 to 39  today leaning more towards the ‘fear’ zone. Bitcoin (BTC) remains volatile this week and has dipped below 60,000 today.

Prices (UTC+8 8:00): BTC: $60,638, -2.45%, ETH: $2,370, -2.89%

24-Hour Long/Short Ratio: 48.2%/51.8%

Fear and Greed Index: 39 (Fear, down from 49)

Crypto Fear and Greed Index | Source: Alternative.me

The recently published Federal Reserve September minutes have exposed a divide among members regarding the anticipated rate cuts, leaving hopes for a 50 basis point reduction unfulfilled. With employment figures remaining robust, the likelihood of rates being maintained in November has surged, especially as inflation data continues to play a more critical role in shaping the Fed's decisions. Rising inflation might slow the pace of rate cuts, as the market awaits the release of today’s US CPI report. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to strengthen, marking its eighth consecutive day of gains, with the Dow and S&P hitting new record highs. In contrast, the crypto market faced an independent correction—Bitcoin dropped 2.45%, while the ETH/BTC exchange rate saw a slight uptick.

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• Federal Reserve Minutes: While a majority backed a 50 basis point rate cut, this wasn’t viewed as a sign of economic concern or a signal for rapid cuts.

• SEC Chairman's View on Cryptocurrencies: The SEC Chair expressed doubts that cryptocurrencies will ever reach mainstream currency status.

• Nigeria’s Financial Boost: The Nigerian government injected $543.5 million into the economy to support the Naira.

• Brazil’s Stablecoin Release: Bitso, Mercado Bitcoin, and Foxbit have collaborated to launch a stablecoin pegged to the Brazilian Real, known as brl1.

• Puffer Finance’s Upcoming Tokenomics: The platform is set to release its tokenomics framework in the coming days.

• Vitalik Buterin: Ethereum’s co-founder has been nominated for the Nobel Prize in Economics, recognized by leading economists for his contributions.

• Ethereum Foundation Moves: The foundation recently sold another 100 ETH, signaling ongoing shifts within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Crypto heat map | Source: Coin360

OpenAI, the artificial intelligence powerhouse, has fired back at billionaire Elon Musk, accusing him of harassment in an Oct. 8 court filing. The filing, a motion to dismiss Musk’s lawsuit, claims that Musk is using legal action to intimidate the AI firm after his earlier failed attempts to assert control over the company.

Source: X | Gary Marcus

Musk originally filed the suit in February, questioning OpenAI’s transition from a nonprofit to a profit-driven model, raising concerns about the ethics behind its sudden pivot. Then in August, Musk filed another lawsuit, accusing OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman, of manipulating him through his concerns about AI’s potential existential risks.

OpenAI’s response emphasized that while Musk once supported the company, he abandoned the venture when his ambitions to lead it were thwarted.

New data from Layerhub sheds light on the harsh realities of  Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market where users place crypto bets on real-world events. Shockingly, just 12.7% of the platform's users have turned a profit. Out of 171,113 crypto wallets analyzed, 149,383 failed to generate returns, leaving only 21,730 wallets in the black.

Polymarket wallets by confirmed realized profits. Source: Layerhub 

Even among the profitable accounts, earnings are modest—fewer than 2,200 wallets earned over $1,000, while the bulk made less than $100. This data underscores the volatile and unpredictable nature of betting markets in the crypto space, where traders often juggle multiple wallets and take on high-risk bets.

Read more: Polymarket Hits Record $533M in Volume Amid U.S. Election Hype and Potential Token Launch

In a bombshell revelation, HBO’s documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery points the finger at Peter Todd, a respected Bitcoin core developer, as the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin. The film confronts Todd with what it claims is compelling evidence, including a confrontational moment where Todd sarcastically admits, “Well yeah, I’m Satoshi Nakamoto,” a phrase he often uses to defend the real creator’s anonymity.

However, Todd quickly denied the accusations on social media, responding to the film’s release with a blunt “I am not Satoshi.” Despite this, HBO’s documentary continues to stir controversy by suggesting Todd's involvement, citing an old chat log in which he joked about sacrificing his Bitcoin holdings, a move the film interprets as Todd cutting off access to Nakamoto’s alleged $69.4 billion fortune.

Source: X | Peter Todd

Whether HBO’s claims hold water or not, this documentary has reignited one of crypto’s most enduring mysteries—who is the real Satoshi Nakamoto?

The FOMC minutes released on Oct. 9 confirmed a 50 basis point rate cut for this year, but Bitcoin failed to follow equities' rally, remaining in the red. Bitcoin (BTC) extended its losses, slipping below the $61,000 mark despite the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes released on October 9. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $60,935, marking a 2% decline over the last 24 hours.

Minutes from the FOMC showed a "substantial majority" of the committee members supported a 50 basis point cut to U.S. interest rates by year's end, which could bring rates to a target range of 4.75%-5.0%. While the minority preferred a more conservative 25 basis point cut, believing that such a rate cut of a larger size would appear premature, the majority thought that a 50-point cut would better reflect recent economic indicators, including inflation trends and the labor market's resiliency.

Supporters of the larger cut emphasized its potential to maintain the strength of both the economy and the job market, while continuing progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Major altcoins followed Bitcoin’s downward trend, with Ethereum (ETH) down 1%, Solana (SOL) shedding 2.5%, and Binance Coin (BNB) dropping by 2.3%. Despite the broader crypto market’s subdued performance, futures open interest surged notably in the wake of the FOMC meeting, hinting at heightened anticipation among traders.

BTC/USDT price chart | Source: KuCoin

In contrast, U.S. equities responded positively to the minutes. The S&P 500 rose 0.68%, nearing an all-time high, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.5%, reaching levels not seen since its September slump. Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, noted that this divergence between equities and crypto reactions to the rate cuts is typical. Equities are more directly impacted by interest rate policies due to their connection to cash flow valuations and corporate debt financing, leading to a surge in stock prices post-announcement. Meanwhile, the crypto market remained sluggish.

Traders in the crypto space appeared cautious, likely awaiting further U.S. economic data expected on October 10 before making any bold moves. The upcoming data could provide clearer signals for the next phase of market action.

Read more: BTC Remains Neutral Amid Market Volatility, Satoshi’s Identity, and More: Oct 9

A maelstrom of high drama, from the world of legal wrangling to cryptic data in markets and bold accusations, courses through the crypto world-just about as dynamic and unpredictable as it has ever been. OpenAI's fight with Elon Musk illustrates the tension about the role of AI in tech ramping up, while profit data by Polymarket lays bare a risky game of bets on real-world events. Meanwhile, it gets even weirder with an HBO documentary naming Peter Todd as Satoshi Nakamoto, the controversial creator of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, each of these stories continues to unfold, and the singular thread that actually binds them together is one continuous promise of innovation, matched only by a mirror-image amount of controversy born from technology, finance, and a very human ambition. Keep up with daily KuCoin News for the latest crypto trends!