The possibility of the United States creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has gained momentum. With Donald Trump returning to the presidency in 2025 the political landscape may become more favorable for Bitcoin. Legislative moves and growing crypto support are adding fuel to this push. Odds of a national Bitcoin reserve have surged especially after new bills surfaced in Pennsylvania.

Polymarket—the largest prediction platform—shows that the likelihood of Trump establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within his first 100 days has jumped from 22% on November 10 to 38% now. This spike came after Pennsylvania introduced the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act. The Satoshi Action Fund which drove this initiative also helped pass the Bitcoin Rights bill in the state legislature last month. The group is now working with 10 other states on similar legislation which could create a ripple effect across the U.S.

If these bills pass they could have major effects on Bitcoin markets. Pennsylvania’s bill proposes investing up to 10% of state funds including the General Fund, the Rainy Day Fund and the State Investment Fund into Bitcoin. According to the 2023 Pennsylvania Treasury Annual Investment Report these funds manage around $51 billion in assets. A 10% allocation would mean an estimated $5.1 billion going directly into Bitcoin marking a significant step for state-level crypto adoption.

BTC/USDT price chart | Source: KuCoin

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On a federal level attention is also on the BITCOIN Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the BITCOIN Act to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by accumulating both purchased and confiscated BTC. Currently the U.S. government holds at least 69,370 BTC seized from criminal activities. With Bitcoin at $92,000 that equates to a reserve of $6.4 billion that would no longer be liquidated but held as a long-term asset.

The BITCOIN Act also proposes purchasing up to 200,000 BTC annually for five years leading to 1 million BTC by 2029. Based on today’s price this translates to $18.4 billion per year or $92 billion over five years. Alongside Pennsylvania’s potential $5.1 billion allocation the total purchasing effort could reach $23.5 billion.

The total amount of BTC being bought—around 256,000 BTC—would cover almost an entire month of Bitcoin trading volume at Coinbase. Coinbase reported 309,000 BTC in average monthly volume during Q3 this year. Such large purchases could greatly affect Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics.

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Bitcoin's total circulating supply is about 19.5 million BTC with only 1.5 million BTC left to mine before reaching the 21 million cap. Introducing a demand for up to 200,000 BTC per year for five years would absorb much of the available supply. This increased buy-side pressure combined with a reduced sell-side due to seized BTC being held could drive prices much higher and tighten market liquidity.

If these U.S. initiatives succeed they could inspire other countries and sovereign funds to consider Bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin would shift from a speculative asset to a strategic one comparable to gold in national reserves. Approval of these bills could also influence institutional investors. A U.S. Bitcoin reserve might prompt pension funds, wealth funds and insurers to increase their Bitcoin allocations.

Top Governments BTC Holdings. Source: Arkham Intel

Globally adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset challenges the traditional financial system. Countries like Bhutan and El Salvador have already accumulated Bitcoin. Bhutan holds 12,568 BTC valued at $1.15 billion while El Salvador has 2,381 BTC worth over $219 million. These moves highlight Bitcoin’s growing recognition as a store of value.

According to Arkham:

“Unlike most governments, Bhutan’s BTC does not come from law enforcement asset seizures, but from Bitcoin mining operations, which have ramped up dramatically since early 2023.”

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With Trump set to take office the world will watch whether he follows through on his pro-Bitcoin agenda. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could redefine Bitcoin’s global role, solidifying it as a hedge against inflation and a strategic asset for national security. The coming months will be crucial with the Bitcoin reserve likely remaining a central topic in crypto circles. The impact could reach far beyond the U.S. potentially sparking global Bitcoin adoption among nations seeking financial sovereignty.