The previous Quicktake (MVRV Doesn't Lie) tied MVRV's dulling as a top signal to a rising Realized Price (RP): in overvalued zones, large volumes of high-priced STH UTXOs lift RV and cap MVRV's upside. Ironically, the same mechanism sharpens MVRV<1 as an undervaluation signal. As RP rises, the drawdown needed for price to fall below it shrinks.
## Who Moves RP?
RV values each coin at the price it last moved, so who moves their coins decides whether RP rises or falls. Splitting holders into three groups separates their roles.
Short-term holders (STH) can't move RP much. Their cost basis is a price within the last ~155 days, close to spot, so moving coins only swaps in a similar last-moved price — little change to RV.
Long-term holders whose cost basis sits below the bear-market low (SLTH, strong LTH) can't pull RP down. If we define SLTH as the 3y+ UTXO age bands, even a −70% drawdown from the prior top still leaves price above their own RP. When they realize, those coins are re-valued at a higher spot price, so RV actually rises. SLTH only ever push RP up.
The only group that can pull RP down is long-term holders who bought near the top and sit deep underwater (WLTH, weak LTH). When these very-high-cost holders capitulate in the undervaluation zone, their coins re-value at the low spot price and RV is cut. So RP, propped up by SLTH and new demand, is pushed higher each cycle, and only large, sustained WLTH capitulation pulls it down.
On the RP chart, RP's bottom has historically printed later than the price bottom. Since no one knows the low in real time, WLTH capitulation spreads over months, and RP keeps falling even after price bottoms, as long as that capitulation continues.
So while MVRV<1 has become a more sensitive undervaluation signal — reached at a shallower drawdown as RP rises — it is too early to call a bottom.
