Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high of $90,000, fueled by a mix of political shifts, macroeconomic conditions, and increasing institutional demand. With former President Donald Trump back in office, pro-crypto policies are expected to shape a favorable regulatory environment for digital assets. Several market analysts, from Plan B to Peter Brandt, predict a continued price surge, with forecasts targeting $100,000 by year-end and as high as $1 million by 2025. This report explores the drivers behind Bitcoin’s growth and evaluates various expert predictions.

Bitcoin’s historical price | Source: TheBlock

Bitcoin, launched in 2009 by an anonymous creator under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, began trading for mere cents, primarily among cryptography enthusiasts. Its price saw its first major surge in 2013, hitting around $1,000 before a correction followed. By 2017, the crypto market gained mainstream attention, and Bitcoin’s price soared to nearly $20,000. However, the ensuing bear market saw Bitcoin retrace significantly in 2018. Following a 2019 rally and the Bitcoin halving in 2020, it once again entered a bull phase, peaking above $64,000 in April 2021, influenced by institutional investments and mainstream adoption. This bullish momentum intensified as institutional investors, including companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla, began adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, signaling confidence in its long-term value. The launch of Bitcoin futures ETFs in late 2020 and early 2021 provided another boost, attracting more capital from traditional finance. 

The market saw volatility in the following years, with significant pullbacks and recoveries influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulatory updates, and investor sentiment. In 2022, rising inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes reduced liquidity across markets, leading to significant pullbacks for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Regulatory crackdowns, especially in the U.S. and China, further pressured prices as authorities scrutinized crypto exchanges and platforms. However, by late 2022 and into 2023, as inflation began to stabilize and the Fed slowed its rate hikes, Bitcoin showed signs of recovery. Renewed institutional interest and Bitcoin’s growing recognition as a hedge against inflation bolstered demand. By 2023, Bitcoin continued its journey as an increasingly accepted asset class, culminating in new price milestones in 2024.

Bitcoin’s Price Action During Trump’s First Tenure as President (2017–2021): From Less Than $1,000 to Above $40,000

Bitcoin price during Trump’s first presidency: 2017-21 | Source: TradingView 

During Donald Trump’s first term (2017–2021), Bitcoin experienced dramatic growth and volatility, reflective of increased mainstream and institutional interest. In 2017, as Trump's presidency began, Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 for the first time, marking the peak of a historic bull market. However, this rapid ascent was followed by a harsh correction in 2018, with Bitcoin’s price plummeting to below $4,000 by the end of that year as the market faced regulatory scrutiny and profit-taking. This downturn was driven by heightened regulatory scrutiny worldwide: in the U.S., the SEC began to reject Bitcoin ETF applications, citing concerns over market manipulation and inadequate investor protections, which dampened institutional interest. China intensified its crackdown, banning domestic cryptocurrency exchanges and prohibiting initial coin offerings (ICOs), while South Korea imposed strict regulations on anonymous trading. These regulatory actions, combined with profit-taking from 2017’s rally, fueled a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price, shaking investor confidence and leading to one of the market’s most significant corrections.

Despite the downturn, Bitcoin gradually recovered, supported by rising interest from institutional players and retail investors. By the end of Trump’s tenure, Bitcoin was on another significant bull run, spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic and unprecedented fiscal stimulus totaling over $5 trillion, reaching a new all-time high of over $40,000 in early 2021.

Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction Ahead of the 2024 US Election: Bullish or Bearish?

Bitcoin’s Price Action in 2024 (January–November 12): From $40,000 to Almost $90,000

BTC/USDT price Jan-Nov 2024 | Source: KuCoin

In 2024, Bitcoin’s price journey has been remarkable, cementing its position as a premier asset in a politically charged and economically dynamic year. The year kicked off with a major catalyst: the U.S. SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, a landmark decision that fueled significant institutional inflows and sent Bitcoin soaring past $50,000 within weeks. This approval marked a new phase of mainstream adoption, drawing in retail and institutional investors alike, who now had a regulated and accessible way to gain Bitcoin exposure. In the weeks following the ETF launch, inflows surged, with the newly introduced ETFs receiving over $10 billion in cumulative inflows by March. These substantial inflows reflected strong demand from both institutional players and individual investors looking for simplified access to Bitcoin. However, the months leading up to the US Presidential Elections saw volatility in ETF investments, with periods of outflows as regulatory uncertainty and market fluctuations caused some investors to take profits. Despite this, net inflows remained positive, with renewed momentum and record inflows reported in early November after Trump’s re-election, driven by heightened optimism around pro-Bitcoin regulatory support under his administration.

Starting the year below $40,000, Bitcoin steadily appreciated throughout the presidential election cycle, buoyed by Federal Reserve rate cuts and heightened institutional demand. In March 2024, the Fed implemented a significant 50 basis point cut, a 25 basis point reduction in June, and one more 25bp rate cut in November, bringing the federal funds rate to its lowest point since early 2022. A pivotal moment came with Donald Trump’s re-election in November, which further ignited optimism for a pro-Bitcoin regulatory environment. Following the election, Bitcoin quickly ascended to its new all-time high of $90,000 on November 12, propelled by expectations of favorable policies and continued ETF inflows of over $357 million. Analysts now forecast a continued bullish trajectory as Bitcoin gains momentum from Trump’s second term and sustained institutional interest.

Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024: What Happens If Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Approved by the SEC?

Bitcoin’s 2024 performance has set it apart not only from altcoins but also from tech and crypto-exposed stocks, reaffirming its position as a premier digital asset in both cryptocurrency and traditional investment circles. The relative stability and upward momentum of Bitcoin compared to other assets have reinforced its role as “digital gold,” attracting both individual and institutional investors in a year of economic and regulatory shifts.

Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Performance and Market Dominance in 2024

Bitcoin’s market dominance at nearly 59% | Source: Coinmarketcap

In 2024, Bitcoin has outpaced most altcoins, underscoring its dominance in the cryptocurrency market. Following its rally past $89,000, Bitcoin's market share surged to around 54%, reflecting strong investor preference for the leading cryptocurrency over higher-risk altcoins. This dominance has been driven by Bitcoin’s “safe-haven” status and increased institutional interest, particularly after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. While altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) posted gains, with SOL reaching a high of $222, they remain secondary to Bitcoin, which has seen steadier growth amid heightened regulatory clarity and macroeconomic tailwinds.

Bitcoin vs. Tech Stocks: A Focus on Tesla

Bitcoin vs. Tesla performance | Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s 2024 returns have exceeded those of most tech stocks, including Tesla (TSLA). Tesla, facing regulatory challenges and market competition, has posted more modest gains than Bitcoin. While TSLA increased by roughly 56% over the past year, Bitcoin surged over 141% during the same period, bolstered by Federal Reserve rate cuts, inflation concerns, and strong ETF inflows. Tesla’s historical link to Bitcoin, marked by its past holdings, diminished after Tesla sold most of its BTC in 2022. However, Bitcoin’s resilience as a non-equity, inflation-hedged asset has continued to attract investor interest and is expected to increasingly outperform traditional tech stocks like Tesla.

Bitcoin vs. Crypto Stocks: Coinbase and MicroStrategy Performance

Bitcoin vs. Coinbase vs. MicroStrategy | Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s rally has also boosted crypto-related stocks, particularly Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, saw its stock rise over 250% over the past one year, benefiting from higher trading volumes and user growth as Bitcoin prices surged. MicroStrategy, with more than 252,000 BTC holdings, saw its stock increase by over 573%, making it one of the top-performing crypto-exposed equities this year. As MicroStrategy’s market cap becomes closely tied to Bitcoin’s value, it serves as a “proxy” for Bitcoin exposure within traditional finance, underscoring Bitcoin’s impact on crypto-exposed stocks.

Here’s a look at some of the key factors that have helped Bitcoin price test new all-time highs since the beginning of November: 

Trump’s Potential Pro-Bitcoin Policies and Regulatory Support

Trump's re-election marks a pivot toward a bitcoin-friendly U.S. economic policy. His administration has pledged to end the “de-banking” of crypto firms and aims to foster financial innovation by supporting banks that engage with digital assets. 

In his keynote speech, Trump had stated, “For too long our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin. If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future”.

This shift is expected to attract more institutional investments, as regulatory agencies like the SEC and the Federal Reserve adopt a more supportive stance. Trump’s pro-crypto stance helped Bitcoin break its previous ATH and cross $74,000 when the results of the US Presidential elections were announced, and usher in a subsequent period of bullishness that has taken BTC to an ATH of over $89,600 as of writing. 

Trump’s new administration may also focus on transparency by investigating past regulatory actions, such as the FTX scandal. By restoring confidence and creating a clear regulatory framework, the U.S. government seeks to legitimize the crypto industry.

Read more: Bitcoin at 89k, Solana Soars Close to All Time Highs at $222, Bitcoin ETF Trading Volume Increases to $38 Billion: Nov 12

The Bitcoin Act and a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

A groundbreaking initiative in Congress, the Bitcoin Act of 2024, aims to establish a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, this legislation would allow the U.S. Treasury to purchase up to 200,000 BTC annually, stored in secure facilities across the nation. This reserve would position Bitcoin alongside gold as a national strategic asset, providing a secure foundation for America’s role in the digital economy.

The act also safeguards private Bitcoin ownership rights, which could encourage more individual and institutional holders to buy and hold BTC, knowing their assets are secure from government intervention.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Inflation Expectations

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts—totaling 75 basis points—have created a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. A 50 basis point cut in March, followed by a 25 basis point cut in June, has brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since early 2022. These rate reductions are seen as a response to stabilizing employment and persistent inflation, making Bitcoin an attractive store of value. With inflation expected to remain above 2%, investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation, which has helped drive its price higher as a safe-haven asset.

Rising Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows | Source: TheBlock

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has driven record inflows, marking a turning point in mainstream Bitcoin adoption. In the weeks following the ETF launch, significant capital flowed into these funds, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF alone generating $4.5 billion in trading volume on Nov. 11 while BlackRock’s IBIT saw inflows worth over $1.1 billion on Nov. 7. These ETFs offer a convenient entry for institutional investors and retail traders alike, who see them as an efficient way to gain direct exposure to Bitcoin. This surge of capital into Bitcoin ETFs has increased demand and broadened Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge, contributing to upward price momentum.

Major Players Accumulating Bitcoin

Source: X

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has soared in 2024, with top players like MicroStrategy, Fidelity, and Strive Asset Management continuing to accumulate substantial BTC holdings. On Nov. 11, MicroStrategy announced that it recently added another 27,200 BTC in a $2.03 billion purchase, bringing its total to over 279,000 BTC. Meanwhile, Strive Asset Management, led by Vivek Ramaswamy, has integrated Bitcoin into portfolio offerings for U.S. investors. Similarly, U.K.-based Cartwright recently recommended a 3% Bitcoin allocation for a pension client, signaling growing interest among institutional investors globally. 

Notably, Japan-based Metaplanet has emerged as a significant corporate Bitcoin holder in Asia. As of October 28, 2024, Metaplanet's Bitcoin holdings surpassed 1,000 BTC, totaling approximately 1,018.17 BTC, valued at around $68.8 million. This surge in demand from large players has strengthened Bitcoin’s price stability and reinforced its role as “digital gold.”

Bhutan and Sovereign Bitcoin Holdings

Bhutan has invested significantly in Bitcoin, now holding 12,568 BTC worth over $1 billion. Bhutan’s proactive approach—allocating 5% of GDP to Bitcoin mining—demonstrates how sovereign wealth funds view Bitcoin as a long-term asset. Other countries with significant Bitcoin holdings include El Salvador, which became the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, holding approximately 2,381 BTC. The rise in sovereign Bitcoin reserves signals increasing government-level recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset, which could catalyze further adoption among other nations seeking financial sovereignty and inflation hedges. Their strategy contrasts with Germany, which sold its Bitcoin holdings earlier in 2024. 

Stablecoin Inflows Bolstering Bitcoin's Liquidity

Throughout 2024, stablecoin inflows have significantly enhanced Bitcoin's liquidity and buying power, especially during price surges. Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) have been pivotal, providing investors with swift access to Bitcoin amid high demand, effectively bridging fiat and cryptocurrency markets.

In November 2024, Binance and Coinbase, two leading cryptocurrency exchanges, reported a combined influx of $9.3 billion in stablecoins on the Ethereum network following the U.S. presidential election. Binance received $4.3 billion, while Coinbase saw $3.4 billion in stablecoin deposits.These substantial inflows indicate that investors are positioning themselves to purchase Bitcoin, anticipating favorable market conditions.

Read more: USDT vs. USDC: Differences and Similarities to Know in 2024

BTC’s Historical Trends and Fourth-Quarter Performance

Bitcoin’s historical Q4 performance over the years | Source: X

Historically, Bitcoin’s best-performing quarters have followed its halving cycles. Q4 has seen impressive returns in past halving years (2012, 2016, 2020), with gains ranging from 58% to 168%. This trend supports expectations for continued growth, reinforcing bullish price targets as November progresses.

Bitcoin crossed $90,000 on November 13, 2024, and is gearing up to overcome a key resistance level at $100,000 at the time of writing. Here are some BTC price predictions shared by prominent analysts and institutions, to help provide investors an overview of what to expect from the leading cryptocurrency in the coming months:

Bitcoin price prediction according to PlanB’s Bitcoin S2F model | Source: BitBo 

• PlanB’s Long-Term Target of $1 Million: PlanB, creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, predicts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, with the potential to hit $500,000 to $1 million by 2025. This forecast is based on Bitcoin’s scarcity, which he compares to assets like gold and real estate that appreciate in inflationary climates. PlanB sees further upside if Bitcoin gains adoption as a national reserve asset, especially under pro-Bitcoin U.S. policies.

• Peter Brandt’s $125,000 Target by Year-End: Veteran trader Peter Brandt estimates Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by New Year’s Eve, supported by Bayesian probability and historical price patterns. He highlights similarities between Bitcoin’s current rally and past bull cycles, suggesting that, based on these trends, Bitcoin’s rally will continue through the end of 2024.

Peter Brandt’s Bitcoin price prediction and analysis | Source: X 

• Standard Chartered’s Projection of $200,000 by 2025: Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by year-end and rise to $200,000 by 2025, fueled by expected policy support under the Trump administration. The bank anticipates crypto market expansion to a $10 trillion cap by 2026, driven by the Bitcoin Act, which could prompt other nations to adopt similar reserve strategies and foster increased Bitcoin demand.

• Arthur Hayes’ $1 Million Prediction: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes foresees Bitcoin climbing to $1 million, catalyzed by expansive U.S. fiscal policies and potential regulatory changes under Trump. Hayes projects that Trump’s industrial subsidies and inflation-inducing policies, coupled with re-shoring efforts, will drive more demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation, allowing Bitcoin to surpass all prior bull markets.

• Alex Krüger’s End-of-Year Estimate of $90,000: Economist Alex Krüger predicts Bitcoin will reach $90,000 by year-end, assigning a 55% likelihood. Krüger suggests the market is only beginning to price in positive sentiment following Trump’s re-election. He expects this sentiment, combined with continued institutional demand, to push Bitcoin past key resistance levels before year-end.

• Markus Thielen’s $100,000+ Projection by Early 2025: 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen predicts Bitcoin will gain 8% within two weeks, 13% within a month, and 26% within two months, likely crossing $100,000 by early 2025. Thielen advocates a “long Bitcoin, short Solana” strategy, expecting Solana to underperform amid macro uncertainty, while Bitcoin’s trajectory remains strong due to robust investor interest.

• Anthony Pompliano’s Target of $100,000 to $200,000: Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, forecasts Bitcoin could rise to $100,000–$200,000 within the next 12 to 18 months. He attributes this outlook to the 2024 Bitcoin halving event, anticipated institutional demand, and favorable supply-demand dynamics. Pompliano emphasizes Bitcoin’s growing appeal on Wall Street and highlights it as a hedge against inflation, predicting further price appreciation as the Federal Reserve continues its rate cuts.

Read more: Is Bitcoin a Strong Hedge Against Inflation?

While the analyst predictions shared above offer clues on how high Bitcoin price could go in the near future, there are some potential risks and market volatility that could impact these projections: 

Bitcoin CME gap | Source: Cointelegraph

1. Short-Term CME Gap and Potential Corrections: Bitcoin’s recent rally created a CME gap between $77,800 and $80,600, a level where Bitcoin might retrace if there’s a short-term correction. Historically, CME gaps tend to be filled, suggesting Bitcoin could dip temporarily before resuming its uptrend.

2. Speculative Liquidity and Non-Sticky Buyers: Some analysts caution that Bitcoin’s recent price surge is driven by speculative buyers, whose holdings are likely to be liquidated if volatility rises. The Giver, a market observer, believes that this lack of “stickiness” could trigger a sell-off post-election, resulting in temporary price dips.

3. Market Saturation and Short-Term Pullbacks: Scient, an anonymous market analyst, anticipates a consolidation phase in BTC price around the $85,000 level. A brief consolidation period could stabilize the market, preparing it for further growth while deterring excessive speculation.

4. Selling Pressure from Miners: As Bitcoin’s price climbs, miners may take advantage of higher prices to sell portions of their holdings, creating additional selling pressure. Historically, periods of significant miner selling have led to temporary pullbacks in Bitcoin’s price, as these large transactions increase short-term supply. If miners continue to offload holdings at current levels, Bitcoin could experience increased volatility, especially if combined with other market factors.

Bitcoin’s surge past $89,000 reflects growing investor confidence in its value as both an asset and a hedge. With a new U.S. administration championing Bitcoin, legislative support through the Bitcoin Act, and increased institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s potential as a global reserve asset is stronger than ever. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by year-end, with long-term forecasts extending to $1 million by 2025.

As more nations consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and as institutional adoption deepens, Bitcoin’s path forward appears promising but not without risks. Investors should stay informed, monitor macroeconomic conditions, and consider diversified strategies to maximize gains in Bitcoin’s evolving market landscape.

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