IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the IMF expects artificial intelligence to eventually affect about 40% of jobs worldwide, downgrading or eliminating many jobs. Georgieva said exposure is around 60% in advanced economies and roughly 23% in low-income countries. Georgieva said poorer countries have lower exposure mainly because AI has not reached those countries yet. Georgieva said young people entering the workforce face the effects first because AI is absorbing routine tasks that underpin entry-level jobs. Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam said demand for graduates' first jobs is already falling. Shanmugaratnam warned that AI could widen the gap between rich and developing economies if governments do not act. Shanmugaratnam spoke on the same panel as Georgieva. Georgieva said Monday in Bangkok that AI spending is keeping the world economy growing at roughly 3% annually despite an energy shock affecting most countries. Georgieva spoke on the opening day of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, which run through October 18 in Bangkok. Georgieva said Asian economies that build AI hardware are the biggest beneficiaries. Georgieva said AI adoption could add 0.5 to 1 percentage point annually to growth in advanced economies. Georgieva said AI adoption could add 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points annually to growth in emerging economies. Georgieva said the upper end of those ranges would more than offset the growth drag from aging populations across the region. The IMF's July outlook update found that Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia, the top four net exporters of AI hardware, exceeded first-quarter growth forecasts. The IMF put the average outperformance at 4.4% on an annualized basis. South Korea grew at a 7.5% pace, compared with the IMF's April projection of 1.8%. Georgieva said in Singapore last week that AI hardware and related technology products now account for more than a tenth of world goods trade. Georgieva said AI investment as a share of global GDP will likely exceed investment in building railroads or the electricity grid. However, Georgieva warned that the AI boom is bypassing most countries outside the AI supply chain. The IMF's July update projected global growth of 3% in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025, as the Middle East war increased energy prices. The IMF will publish its full World Economic Outlook at 9 a.m. Bangkok time on October 13, equivalent to 10 p.m. Monday in New York. The outlook will provide the first revision to the 3% global growth forecast since July. Georgieva said AI could reduce government tax revenue if AI shifts income from workers to owners of capital, eroding a major tax base. World Bank President Ajay Banga said the bank is supporting small-scale AI tools that do not depend on large language models. Banga said those tools target farmers, clinics and classrooms in emerging markets. Georgieva said in Singapore that investment in AI infrastructure is adding to inflation. Georgieva warned that disappointing earnings could spread through markets because major AI companies have borrowed heavily to finance AI infrastructure.
IMF Warns AI Could Displace 40% of Jobs, Young Workers Most at Risk
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IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned AI could displace 40% of global jobs, with young workers most at risk. Value investing in crypto requires attention to such macro trends. AI is already taking over routine tasks in entry-level roles, with advanced economies facing 60% exposure versus 23% in low-income countries. Risk management strategies must adapt as AI spending supports 3% annual global growth amid energy shocks. Singapore’s Tharman Shanmugaratnam added that without action, AI could deepen the divide between rich and developing nations.
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