Intercontinental Exchange Launches Gold Futures in London; EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts

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Intercontinental Exchange launches gold futures trading in London.

2. The Indonesian nickel-iron smelter MSS is facing an application to suspend debt repayments.

3. The U.S. denies reports by Iranian state media that a U.S. military helicopter crashed in the Red Sea.

4. The sugarcane cultivation area registered by the agriculture department in the Solapur region of India decreased significantly by 32,948 hectares.

5. As of Saturday, the average daily volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days was 10.3 million barrels, equivalent to 76% of the pre-war baseline.

1. According to CCTV, citing the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation of Indonesia, Mount Semeru in East Java Province erupted at 5:29 a.m. local time on the 6th, with an eruption column reaching approximately 900 meters in height. The eruption lasted 135 seconds, producing gray, dense ash that spread toward the northeast. Since the beginning of this year, Mount Semeru has experienced frequent activity.

2. U.S. Central Command stated that Iranian state media have been spreading false reports claiming that a U.S. Navy MH-60R helicopter crashed in the Red Sea last night after declaring an emergency. U.S. Central Command affirmed that the report of a U.S. military helicopter crashing in the Red Sea after declaring an emergency is untrue. All U.S. aircraft and personnel in the Middle East are currently safe and their locations have been confirmed.

3. According to the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), U.S. sanctions on Iran have left dozens of oil tankers stranded off Iran’s coast, with others anchored near Sri Lanka outside the Persian Gulf.

4. According to CCTV, on the 6th local time, Israel’s Defense Minister Katz issued a statement claiming that intelligence indicates the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) plans to launch an attack on the 7th, the third anniversary of the outbreak of the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and he has instructed the Israeli military to raise its alert status to the highest level.

1. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 0.54% to close at $89.91 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract increased 0.76% to $101.08 per barrel. U.S. API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, with the larger-than-expected draw boosting oil prices; geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a tanker fire disrupting Black Sea oil shipments, and attacks on Russian refineries halting processing have intensified supply concerns; the EIA significantly raised its price forecasts for Brent crude for this year and next, and analysts note that global oil inventories remain at extremely low levels, providing strong supply and demand support for rising prices.

2. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 0.86% to $4,192.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.65% to $61.70 per ounce. With expectations of Fed rate hikes cooling and market probabilities favoring rate stability, precious metals have received temporary support, though bullish and bearish forces remain balanced, contributing to this price increase.

3. Most base metals in London closed lower; LME zinc rose 0.77% to $3,772.5 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.53% to $3,143.5 per ton, LME copper fell 0.08% to $14,409.0 per ton, LME lead fell 0.21% to $1,871.5 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.28% to $15,670.0 per ton, and LME tin fell 0.33% to $54,135.0 per ton.

1. According to SMM, Pakistan officially launched Phase III of the Thar Coal Block II project on October 5, increasing the mine’s annual capacity from 7.6 million tons to 11.2 million tons. Sindh Governor Murad Ali Shah stated that this expansion adds 3.6 million tons of annual capacity, enabling Lucky Electric Power Company’s 660 MW power plant to fully replace imported coal with Thar coal. The expansion is expected to save approximately $220 million in foreign exchange expenditures annually.

2. At the IFQM 2026 seminar, TATA Steel’s CEO and Managing Director, TV Narendran, stated that the company plans to invest approximately INR 400 billion to add around 5 million tonnes per year of steelmaking capacity at the Neelachal Ispat Nigam Ltd (NINL) plant in Kalinganagar, Odisha. This expansion will focus on long products, aiming to strengthen the company’s long products business.

1. Vietnam is strongly promoting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet rapidly growing electricity demand, but related plans are significantly behind schedule, with only 1 out of 18 LNG power projects expected to be completed on time.

2. Despite South Korea stating that its participation in the Alaska natural gas project is contingent on the project’s commercial viability, which prompted U.S. President Trump to threaten trade retaliation, U.S. Vice President Vance said the project will continue.

3. According to the latest data from market intelligence firm Kpler, the average daily crude oil throughput through the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days, as of Saturday, was 10.3 million barrels, equivalent to 76% of the pre-war baseline. However, shipments of refined products such as gasoline and diesel amounted to only 1.3 million barrels per day, accounting for just 11% of total transport volume, with the remainder being unrefined crude oil.

4. Patrick DeHaan of the data analytics company GasBuddy said that Trump’s executive order easing restrictions on the use of tax-exempt red diesel provides little benefit to most drivers, as most U.S. states still prohibit red diesel from being used on public roads, this tax measure may only defer payment, and it does not increase the supply of diesel.

5. The World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, noted that economies in East Asia and the Pacific have responded more actively and with greater reliance on subsidies to rising global energy prices driven by the U.S.-Iran war, a strategy that may be “unsustainable,” and projected that Middle Eastern oil exports will not return to pre-conflict levels until mid-2027.

6. According to China Fund News, recent data from Mobility Global shows that in the first half of 2026, pure gasoline vehicles accounted for 49% of global new car sales—the first time in history that their share has fallen below 50%, a significant drop of 24% from 73% in 2021.

7. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Report: WTI crude oil price forecast for 2026 is now $88.21 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $84.65. WTI crude oil price forecast for 2027 is now $79.74 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $69.74. Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 is now $96.32 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $91.01. Brent crude oil price forecast for 2027 is now $83.74 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $73.74.

1. According to SMM, the Chinese-funded nickel smelter MSS in Morowali, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, is facing a debt payment suspension (PKPU) application filed by the nickel mining company PT Mineral Maju Sejahtera. The case was registered on September 29 at the Central Commercial Court in Jakarta, with the first hearing scheduled for October 8. MSS operates eight RKEF furnaces with an annual nickel iron production target of approximately 600,000 tons. There is currently no confirmed information regarding a production halt at the company.

2. According to SMM, on October 5, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) disclosed that the first shipment of bauxite from Guinea is en route to the UAE under a renewed agreement with Guinea’s bauxite company. In late August, approximately 66,000 tons of bauxite were loaded onto a Panamax vessel at the Kamsar port in Guinea.

3. According to the Financial Times of the UK: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has begun offering gold futures trading in London, the latest effort to introduce precious metals derivatives in this global center for physical gold bar trading. This week, the exchange launched precious metals contracts tied to London’s daily auction price. In addition to gold, the company has also introduced contracts for silver, platinum, and palladium.

1. On October 7 at 22:30, the U.S. EIA released its weekly crude oil and refined products inventory report;

2. TBC, October 8: Methanol inventory at East China ports in China as of October 8;

3. On October 8 at 2:00, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting.