Fed Holds Rates Steady as Expected; BTC Rebounds Above 81K Before Stalling in Consolidation
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and corporate earnings were the key drivers of global markets on Wednesday. The Fed held interest rates steady at its October meeting, in line with expectations, while all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, supported by strength in memory and optical communications stocks. After the market close, Microsoft and Google reported divergent earnings results, reigniting debate over whether AI capital expenditure can translate into meaningful returns. Google shares plunged after its Q3 results fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, SK Hynix reported a sevenfold year-over-year increase in Q3 operating profit, lifting memory stocks across the board. SK Hynix surged 13.3%, Micron gained approximately 5.86%, SanDisk rose around 7.66%, and Western Digital advanced about 4.08%. Most optical communications stocks also closed higher. In the crypto market, BTC rebounded above $81,000 but encountered resistance after briefly rising above $81,700. Trading volume contracted, and the price returned to consolidate in the $81,000–$81,200 range. In the short term, attention is focused on whether the $80,700–$81,000 support zone can hold and whether BTC can break decisively above the $81,500–$81,750 resistance zone.
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BTC: $81,340.4 (+0.53%); ETH: $2,359.53 (+0.39%); NASDAQ: 26,549.85 (+0.27%); S&P 500: 7,744.37 (+0.28%); Fear & Greed Index: 51 (previous: 51) * (Data as of 2026-10-29 00:00 UTC)*
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🧠 Market Insights
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Although the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady was widely expected, two officials advocated a rate hike, highlighting continued divisions within the policymaking committee. If inflation rebounds, expectations for rate cuts could weaken further, limiting the scope for valuation expansion across risk assets. On the capital flow front, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have been close to zero year to date, yet BTC’s decline has remained relatively limited, suggesting that the market retains a degree of underlying buying support. Meanwhile, publicly listed companies now hold approximately 1.3 million BTC, up 31% over the past 14 months, with Strategy accounting for 71% of the increase. Continued corporate treasury accumulation provides structural support for the market, although the concentration of incremental demand in a single entity introduces risks to its sustainability.
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In addition, the average profit margin of short-term holders (STH) has narrowed from approximately 20% to 5.5%, while their average cost basis stands at around $76,500. With unrealized gains shrinking significantly, the market may enter a consolidation phase. Nevertheless, the overall holder structure remains relatively healthy, with selling pressure having been substantially absorbed. The STH cost basis near $76,500 remains a key support level. As long as this level holds, short-term holders can remain in profit, potentially allowing the market to rebuild momentum following consolidation.
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🔥 Alpha Project Performance
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AI/PRIORS: PRIORS and AI were added to Robinhood’s asset display page, triggering gains of more than 25% for AI and over 33% for PRIORS intraday.
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MPLX: Unusual price and volume movements attracted speculative interest. After an earlier sharp rally and pullback, the token surged again, with daily trading volume increasing more than 28-fold and the price gaining nearly 60% intraday.
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PEPE: Two long-dormant whale addresses transferred a combined 2.27 trillion PEPE tokens, drawing attention to significant on-chain activity. Despite the broader market backdrop, PEPE strengthened and gained nearly 10% intraday.
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LINK: Chainlink announced an expanded partnership with S&P Global Ratings to bring S&P’s Vault Risk Assessment data on-chain, helping LINK rise nearly 2%.
Macroeconomics
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Middle East: Iran’s foreign minister stated that Iran was discussing the implementation of a seven-day plan with mediators, with the goal of reaching an agreement in less than a week. U.S. Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in an attempt to restart peace negotiations. Trump threatened to resume military operations targeting Iran’s leadership after the U.S. midterm elections.
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The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate within the 3.75%–4.00% range, in line with market expectations, although two officials advocated a 25-basis-point rate hike.
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At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Waller stated that the Federal Reserve would reduce the frequency of its policy meetings, with the number of rate-setting meetings scheduled for 2028 falling to six.
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The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, marking its first rate hike in more than three years.
Industry Events
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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Utah to prevent the state from restricting prediction market platform Kalshi, while Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and two of its co-founders.
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The CFTC will hold a roundtable on December 15 to discuss 24/7 trading in derivatives markets, including tokenized assets.
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Google introduced a multiparty computation (MPC)-based digital asset custody service, with commercial availability planned for early 2027.
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The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) officially launched its tokenization service, with Ondo Finance participating as an ecosystem partner.
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Pump.fun integrated Hyperliquid perpetual futures trading into its application.
This Week’s Outlook
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October 30: Bank of Japan interest rate decision; BOJ governor’s monetary policy press conference; earnings reports from Amazon, Coinbase, Intel, and SanDisk; CARDS token unlock equivalent to 9.6% of circulating supply, worth approximately $18.4 million.
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October 31: FLOCK token unlock equivalent to 40.97% of circulating supply, worth approximately $18.4 million.
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November 1: OPEC+ meeting; SUI token unlock equivalent to 0.32% of circulating supply, worth approximately $12 million; EIGEN token unlock equivalent to 3.93% of circulating supply, worth approximately $8.4947 million.
