Rising interest rates have intensified inflation concerns, putting pressure on BTC and causing it to fall back to around 83K
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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Rising interest rates have re-intensified inflation concerns, coupled with the escalating situation in the Middle East, which has pushed up energy prices, putting overall risk assets under pressure. Iran has increased its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated the closure of the strait, pushing oil prices above $101, further exacerbating concerns about energy supply. The three major U.S. stock indices fell collectively, with the Nasdaq ending its five-day winning streak and falling off its record high, the S&P following suit, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by over 1% during trading. Both the chip index and the banking index fell by over 1%, with Meta declining by over 2% and CrowdStrike falling by nearly 5%. The cryptocurrency market also came under pressure, with BTC rapidly declining after surging from around 85K, hitting a low of approximately $82,000. Its technical rebound was hindered near $84,300, and it is currently trading sideways around $83,000, continuing its weak short-term trend. Close attention should be paid to the support at $82,000 and the pressure between $84,300 and $84,500.
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BTC: $83,321.6 (-2.62%); ETH: $2,574.25 (-4.57%); NASDAQ: 27538.69 (-0.22%); S&P 500: 7,801.77 (-0.22%); Fear & Greed Index: 64 (previous value: 71) (Data as of: 2026-10-08 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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The macroeconomic environment of the market is weak: the resumption of selling in European bonds coupled with the rapid rise in US Treasury yields has pushed the yields of 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds to their highest levels since 2002. The one-year inflation expectation in the US has risen to 3.9%, further reinforcing market concerns about the duration of high interest rates. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting were generally hawkish, with most officials believing that further interest rate hikes are still possible within the year. However, the market's pricing for an October rate hike has fallen below 20%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will become an important verification point for subsequent policy expectations.
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Currently, the long-term interest rate hitting a 20-year high is the core variable suppressing the crypto market. A high-interest rate environment increases the risk-free return rate, diminishes the relative attractiveness of crypto assets, and simultaneously boosts the US dollar while suppressing gold and the valuation of risky assets. Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve are hawkish, the probability of a rate hike in October has significantly decreased, indicating a reduction in short-term policy uncertainty. However, rising inflation expectations and energy risks pose new upward pressures, and short-term risk appetite remains under pressure. The sustainability of BTC's rebound requires further observation to see if inflation data and expectations for Fed policy can improve again.
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🔥Alpha project performance
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Sui: The offline tunnel test of Sui achieved a TPS breakthrough of 40 million, significantly surpassing the previous test record of approximately 6.1 million TPS. The integration of Samsung Wallet with Sui provided a dual boost to the token, causing a short-term increase, but it later declined, ending the day with a slight drop of 2%.
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NEAR: The quantum security platform Quantus has launched QTC token trading through Near Intents, maintaining the popularity of the NEAR ecosystem, with the token surging over 5% within a single day.
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SAND: Unusual price and volume movements, with the price reaching a high of $0.087 from $0.06, with a contract turnover of nearly $600 million and a daily trading volume increasing by over 2 times. It then fell back, closing up nearly 7% for the day.
Macroeconomics
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The situation in the Middle East: The US and Iran are negotiating through mediation by Qatar. Iran claims to have submitted a feasible plan to the mediator, and the US military has been instructed to prepare for resuming strikes against Iran. The Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia continue to exchange attacks. The Yemeni government forces claim to have recaptured the Red Sea port of Mukha and taken control of the Mandeb Strait, while the Houthi rebels deny these claims and launch missiles at Saudi Arabia.
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The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting signaled a hawkish stance, with all participating officials supporting an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Most officials believed that another rate hike before the end of the year might be appropriate.
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After seasonal adjustment, the non-farm payroll in the United States increased by 29,000 in September, which was lower than the market expectation median of 90,000. The total number of new non-farm jobs in July and August was revised downwards by 60,000.
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The unemployment rate in the United States in September was 4.2%, with an expectation of 4.1% and a previous value of 4.1%.
Industry events
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The US CFTC has proposed the first batch of formal rules for the crypto market, namely "Regulation of Crypto Asset Trading" and "Regulation of Crypto Asset Market"
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The US CFTC has recently issued a notice of proposed rulemaking, intending to utilize its existing authority to establish a crypto market framework for spot trading
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) intends to relax the rules on the custody of crypto assets, allowing investment advisors to self-custody Bitcoin under certain conditions
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The U.S. Treasury Department withdraws proposed cryptocurrency monitoring rules targeting non-custodial wallets and CVC crypto mixing
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Hong Kong plans to submit a revised draft of the virtual asset licensing regulations within the year
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S&P Global Ratings Launches On-Chain Lending Treasury Risk Assessment Framework VRA
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The UK has selected six banks to issue the first digital native treasury bond (DIGIT), with plans to issue it in Q1 2027
Outlook for this week
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October 8: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; initial jobless claims for the week of October 3 in the United States (in tens of thousands); STABLE unlocks 3.29% of the circulating supply, valued at approximately $23,812,200.
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October 11: The unlocked circulation ratio of APT was 0.64%, with a value of approximately $9.06 million; The unlocked circulation ratio of ALLO was 8.6%, with a value of approximately $4.3069 million.
