Escondida Copper Mine Halts Operations Following Fatal Incident; India Reduces Vegetable Oil Import Tariffs

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Thursday, September 24, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. Central Bank: An MLF operation of RMB 800 billion will be conducted on September 24.

2. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Consumption is gradually increasing, and pork and live pig prices are expected to continue rising slightly.

3. The auction failure rate for coking coal has surged sharply, with transaction prices collapsing across the board.

4. The Escondida copper mine has ceased all operations due to a fatal accident, and resumption of operations is pending regulatory approval.

5. OECD: The Fed and the ECB are expected to raise rates once more this year, followed by rate stability in 2027.

6. Several securities industry analysts specializing in real estate believe the likelihood of a nationwide interest subsidy policy being implemented is low.

7. Iranian officials: No rush to negotiate; opening the Strait of Hormuz requires meeting Iran's conditions.

8. Iranian media: Alaghi's contact with Witkoff was unauthorized and requires an explanation.

9. The Indian government issued a notice stating that it has lowered the basic import duties on crude and refined edible oils, including palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, to seek price reductions during the holiday peak season.

1. To maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, on September 24, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct an 800-billion-yuan MLF operation with a one-year maturity, using a fixed-amount, interest-rate-bidding, multiple-price-winning method.

2. According to CCTV News, on the afternoon of September 23, President Xi Jinping departed Beijing on a special aircraft, at the invitation of U.S. President Trump, to undertake a state visit to the United States. Accompanying President Xi on the visit are his wife, Peng Liyuan; Cai Qi, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee; and Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs.

3. According to the Georgia Ports Authority (GPA), in recent weeks, the speed of ocean freight shipments from India to the U.S. East Coast has increased, as some shipping companies have begun resuming routes through the Suez Canal instead of detouring around the southern tip of Africa to avoid missile threats in the Red Sea.

4. The OECD forecasts global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026 (previously 2.8%) and 3.0% in 2027 (previously 3.1%). U.S. economic growth is expected to be 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 (previously 2.0% and 1.8%). The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to raise interest rates once more this year, followed by rate stability in 2027.

5. The Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that U.S. President Trump’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly was an attempt to justify his actions by portraying himself as a “failed aggressor.” He said that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened nor would negotiations take place until Iran’s conditions are met. He added that Iran’s conditions have already been finalized and delivered to Qatar and Pakistan.

6. Fed Governor Barr stated that the Fed may need to raise rates further to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. Barr said on Wednesday that he supports the Fed’s decision last week to raise rates by 25 basis points, as the risks to achieving the Fed’s inflation target have increased.

7. The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that we successfully detonated an anti-ship missile above the U.S. "USS Washington" aircraft carrier for the first time.

8. According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, the interaction between Iranian Foreign Minister Alirzaei and Trump’s negotiation representative Witkoff was not coordinated with or approved by relevant decision-making and responsible bodies, including the Supreme National Security Council. Some claims that “this action was coordinated” are untrue.

9. According to Xinhua News Agency, on the afternoon of September 23 local time, President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington aboard a special aircraft, at the invitation of U.S. President Trump, for a state visit. Upon arriving at Andrews Air Force Base in Washington, President Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan were warmly welcomed by President Trump and First Lady Melania.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 1.23% to $4,322.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped 2.40% to $64.93 per ounce. Hawkish remarks from U.S. officials heightened expectations for rate hikes, increasing the cost of holding gold, while the Middle East situation pushed up U.S. Treasury yields. Rising rate expectations weighed on precious metals, leaving prices under pressure amid conflicting market forces.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed up 2.42% at $92.71 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude rose 3.04% to $98.31 per barrel. Libya’s oil production dropped significantly, causing earlier expectations of increased supply due to easing geopolitical tensions and progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations to reverse, with tighter supply expectations supporting higher oil prices.

3. All base metals in London fell: LME zinc dropped 0.32% to $3,897.5/ton, LME aluminum fell 0.46% to $3,250.0/ton, LME tin declined 0.47% to $53,960.0/ton, LME lead dropped 0.67% to $1,923.0/ton, LME copper fell 0.90% to $14,615.5/ton, and LME nickel declined 0.91% to $16,480.0/ton.

1. According to Jiaolink, yesterday, spot prices for coking coal in the producing regions remained stable, but the auction failure rate surged sharply, with transaction prices collapsing nationwide. The failure rate jumped from 26% the previous day to 73%. The widespread decline in transaction prices indicates a sharp drop in downstream acceptance of current prices, and the price discovery function of the auction market is breaking down.

2. According to Yicai, market rumors suggest a nationwide interest subsidy policy is imminent, with the Ministry of Finance providing a subsidy of 20–50 basis points and local governments adding another 20–50 basis points, resulting in a total subsidy of up to 100 basis points, aiming to bring first-home mortgage rates down to 2%. Further rumors claim that mortgage interest subsidies will be implemented soon, with a total fund of RMB 100 billion and a 20-basis-point subsidy targeting first-time homebuyers. However, multiple securities analysts in the real estate sector believe the likelihood of a nationwide subsidy policy being implemented is low; one analyst noted, “At the national level, extending the loan term effectively reduces interest by roughly the same amount as an interest subsidy or rate cut.”

3. According to data from Zhonggang Network, as of the week ending September 23, the national construction materials output was 4.3285 million tons, an increase of 149,800 tons from the previous week; total inventory stood at 9.846 million tons, a decrease of 766,700 tons from the previous week; national hot-rolled coil output was 4.1659 million tons, a decrease of 37,400 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 5.059 million tons, a decrease of 58,500 tons from the previous week.

4. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, as of mid-September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities amounted to 9.32 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons (-2.8%) from the previous month, with inventories continuing to decline; an increase of 2.11 million tons (+29.3%) compared to the beginning of the year; and a decrease of 90,000 tons (-1.0%) compared to the same period last year.

1. Latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) in the UAE shows that as of the week ending September 21, total refined product inventories at the Fujairah port amounted to 10.296 million barrels, an increase of 3.838 million barrels from the previous week.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 23, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises in China amounted to 1.4757 million tons, a decrease of 80,500 tons from the previous cycle, representing a 5.17% week-over-week decline. This week, overall urea inventory levels among domestic enterprises showed a downward trend, primarily due to accelerated export shipping activity in peripheral regions, causing inventory to shift from factory warehouses to port terminals.

3. As of September 23, 2026, the total port inventory of methanol in China stood at 412,000 metric tons, a decrease of 11,900 metric tons from the previous period. Inventory decreased by 41,300 metric tons in the East China region, while inventory increased by 29,400 metric tons in the South China region.

4. According to the EIA report, for the week ending September 18, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, increased by 2.969 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 0.7% rise. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 405,000 barrels to 284.6 million barrels, a 0.14% decline.

5. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that a diesel export ban would not work, as prohibiting diesel exports would drive up gasoline and jet fuel prices.

6. According to Politico, citing five knowledgeable sources, the Trump administration is developing a plan to suspend diesel exports for 90 days in an effort to mitigate the negative impact of high energy prices on Republican midterm elections. Multiple sources say the plan has sparked division within the government and the oil industry, with some officials and refineries warning that the short-term price reduction may be offset by future fuel price increases.

1. According to SMM, a small to medium-sized lead smelter in northwest China has recently commenced temporary maintenance and is expected to resume production on September 28 (next Monday). Following the completion of this maintenance, the smelter’s output in October is projected to rebound to around 3,000 tons.

2. SMM data shows that on September 23, the spot premium for SMM No. 1 electrolytic copper against the SHFE CU2610 contract was RMB 1,200–1,480 per ton; on September 21, nationwide copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell to 74,800 metric tons, near the 1st percentile of the past year, with limited tradable supply from smelters and signs of over-selling. Surveys indicate that smelters with copper concentrate processing manuals and export capabilities have no immediate export plans.

3. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice on risk control measures during the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays: During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the margin requirements and price limit bands for extended contracts will remain unchanged.

4. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the domestic polysilicon market sentiment has improved compared to last week, with 3-4 companies engaging in transactions and actual trading volumes increasing. As production adjustment plans from various companies become clearer, expectations for supply-side contraction in the industry have further strengthened; starting in October, overall industry utilization rates are expected to decline to around 35%.

5. On September 23, BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile’s Atacama Desert announced that a contracted worker died in an accident involving a front-end loader during equipment maintenance, prompting an immediate suspension of all operations at the mine. The company expects the mine’s copper production for the 2026 fiscal year to reach up to 1.26 million tons. Chile’s mining regulatory agency, Sernageomin, has dispatched personnel to investigate. As per local practice, operations may not resume until safety is confirmed by regulators; no timeline for resumption has been provided.

1. Policy signals have not yet been fully absorbed; coking coal futures prices are likely to remain weakly range-bound.

Hengyin Futures stated that the September coking coal market was primarily driven by rigid supply-side contractions, with常态化 safety inspections in China and a sharp decline in Mongolian coal imports creating dual supply constraints that supported elevated prices. However, starting in mid-September, concentrated policy signals promoting supply assurance boosted expectations of mine resumptions, prompting a correction in coking coal prices from their highs. The earlier price rally, driven by tight supply constraints, has significantly weakened; after a sharp pullback, the market has entered a weak phase seeking a bottom, with longs and shorts repeatedly negotiating between “policy expectations” and “actual supply tightness.” Entering October, Mongolian coal import expectations have slightly recovered but remain unlikely to return to previous highs in the short term, while the actual output recovery from Shanxi mines still needs monitoring. Supply tightness continues to serve as the most solid floor for prices. On the demand side, the traditional “Golden September, Silver October” peak season has lacked strength, with steelmakers’ deep losses and self-imposed production controls exerting negative feedback pressure on raw material demand. Uneven profit distribution across the industrial chain may cap price upside. In the short term, policy signals have not yet been fully absorbed, and expectations of negative feedback from steelmaker cuts continue to unfold; as a result, coking coal futures prices are likely to remain in a weak, range-bound trading pattern.

2. Signs of escalating U.S.-Iran negotiations put methanol under pressure, prompting a pullback.

Everbright Futures noted that on Wednesday, methanol futures continued their downward correction. The core driver behind the price weakness remains the renewed signals of U.S.-Iran negotiations, accelerating the retreat of geopolitical premiums. The sharp rally in methanol since late August was primarily driven by expectations of disrupted Middle Eastern imports due to potential blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. However, starting in mid-September, overseas media reported potential resumption of U.S.-Iran talks, reigniting market expectations of geopolitical easing. Brent crude prices subsequently retreated from their highs to below $100 per barrel, triggering a correlated decline across China’s energy and chemical sectors. According to Reuters, under the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan, recent signals from the U.S. and Iran suggest a possible restart of diplomatic negotiations. Looking ahead, methanol is currently caught in a fierce tug-of-war between “low inventory, strong fundamentals” and “geopolitical easing, weak expectations.” In the short term, the historical low port inventory of 4.2 million tons provides strong support for nearby contracts, while limited import increases in October are likely to sustain the inventory drawdown trend. However, the valuation logic for longer-dated contracts is being repriced amid geopolitical easing expectations—if substantive progress is made in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and navigation through the Strait resumes, a surge in Middle Eastern methanol imports could become the greatest downward pressure on distant-month contracts.

1. TBA on September 24, Mysteel releases weekly production and inventory data for five major steel products

2. On September 24 at 20:30, the USDA released the weekly agricultural exports sales report.