Iran's Foreign Minister Says Hormuz Strait Opening Depends on Conditions; China to Cease 2026 Cotton Sales

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1. Iran's Foreign Minister: The openness of the Strait of Hormuz depends on whether Iran's conditions are met.

2. Preliminary data shows that the number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits.

3. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 164.1934 million tons, an increase of 0.6397 million tons环比.

4. Taking into account the current cotton market conditions, China State Reserve Cotton Management Co., Ltd. will cease the sale of central reserve cotton effective September 30, 2026.

5. BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, stated that operations are gradually resuming as assessments continue.

6. China and the United States have reached eight points of consensus.

7. According to IRNA, a source denied conflicting reports of talks between Iran and the United States in New York.

On the 27th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Alirza said Iran will not make concessions to the United States on its established conditions; the opening of the Strait of Hormuz depends on whether Iran’s conditions are met, and any progress regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz hinges on the implementation of these conditions—Iran will not compromise on these issues.

2. Market news: Preliminary data shows that the number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits.

3. Dmitry Polyansky, Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations and Permanent Representative of Russia to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky has not ceased provocative actions against Moscow.

4. According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan will hold a meeting attended by senior military officials from the three countries to discuss support for Saudi Arabia under their mutual defense agreement.

5. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of September 24, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,686.62 points, a decrease of 1.21 points from the previous period. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) stood at 1,917.68 points, up 1.1% from the previous period.

6. From September 23 to 25 local time, Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to the United States. During the visit, the two heads of state exchanged in-depth views on building a constructive and strategically stable relationship between China and the U.S., as well as major international and regional issues, and reached eight points of consensus, including mutual recognition by both leaders of the positive role of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism and the outcomes of their respective economic teams’ negotiations, such as establishing and advancing mechanisms like the Trade Council, agreeing to a $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction arrangement, extending the outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations, and instructing their teams to implement these agreements.

7. In a televised interview aired on Al Jazeera in Qatar on September 26, Iranian President Pezeshkian emphasized that regional countries are capable of ensuring their own security. Regarding the situation in Yemen, Pezeshkian denied any direct Iranian involvement, stating that the local developments are “not related to Iran,” and that Iran merely sympathizes with the oppressed. He referred to Saudis and Yemenis as “brothers who should not fight,” and expressed Iran’s readiness to help resolve the conflict by actively promoting negotiations between the Houthi movement in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, rather than escalating tensions.

8. According to IRNA, a source denied conflicting reports of talks between Iran and the United States in New York. The Iranian delegation is currently in New York attending the United Nations General Assembly. The source stated: “Iran’s considerations and position were clearly and unambiguously conveyed to the U.S. side last Tuesday through Qatari mediation, and Iran is currently awaiting a response from the U.S. Therefore, there are no plans for the Iranian delegation to hold new negotiations with the U.S., and the Iranian Foreign Minister will return home on Tuesday after completing the scheduled agenda.”

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 0.52% to $4,320.50 per ounce, down 2.36% for the week, while COMEX silver futures rose 1.11% to $64.71 per ounce, down 3.63% for the week.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed down 2.29% at $92.44 per barrel, down 3.92% for the week; the main contract for Brent crude fell 2.59% to $97.62 per barrel, down 1.68% for the week. U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered a technical phase, with Iran proposing that if U.S. conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen seven days later, easing expectations of supply tightness; data from Intercontinental Exchange showed that speculative net long positions in Brent crude fell significantly by the end of the week, as speculative capital exited and pressured oil prices.

3. London base metals showed mixed movements: LME tin rose 1% to $54,550 per ton, up 1.57% for the week; LME aluminum rose 0.85% to $3,277.5 per ton, down 0.33% for the week; LME copper rose 0.08% to $14,632.0 per ton, up 0.76% for the week; LME lead fell 0.21% to $1,930.0 per ton, up 0.47% for the week; LME nickel fell 0.70% to $16,385.0 per ton, up 1.25% for the week; LME zinc fell 1.55% to $3,893.5 per ton, down 0.68% for the week.

1. According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 164.1934 million tons, an increase of 0.6397 million tons环比; the daily discharge volume is 3.3530 million tons, a decrease of 0.0058 million tons; the number of vessels at port is 108, a decrease of 6. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 172.1650 million tons, an increase of 0.8057 million tons环比; the daily discharge volume is 3.5055 million tons, a decrease of 0.0067 million tons; the number of vessels at port is 118, a decrease of 11.

2. According to Mysteel data, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity at 44 sampled pig iron enterprises nationwide was 55.68%, down 6.15% week-over-week and 5.68% month-over-month. Pig iron inventory at the mills stood at 6.41 million tons, up 418,000 tons week-over-week and 929,000 tons month-over-month.

3. The Indian government is considering requiring power generators to resume blending imported coal with domestic coal for the first time since 2024, to alleviate coal supply shortages. Government sources said that supply pressures have pushed India’s monthly spot electricity prices to their highest level since 2022.

4. According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week amounted to 9.3805 million metric tons, a decrease of 356,400 metric tons (-3.66%) compared to last week, covering 37 cities and 126 warehouses.

1. Market news: The local governor stated that the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia's Rostov region was damaged in a drone attack and has suspended operations.

2. According to foreign media citing trade sources and analysts, ship-to-ship transfer activities in the Sea of Oman targeting Middle Eastern crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly reached capacity due to Saudi Arabia shifting its crude oil exports from Red Sea ports toward the Strait of Hormuz, alongside increased exports from other oil-producing nations.

1. Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade stated that Indonesia’s refined tin exports in August amounted to 4,804.3 tons.

2. BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, said on Thursday that operations are gradually resuming as assessments continue. Operations were halted on Wednesday after a worker died in an accident during maintenance work.

1. In October, smelters face another wave of maintenance; be cautious of historically high copper prices.

According to Fubao Nonferrous, copper prices fluctuated widely at historical highs in September, with the main SHFE copper contract briefly surpassing the RMB 110,000/ton mark. The market exhibited a “three highs” scenario: high prices, high premiums, and high forward spreads, as spot shortages and peak-season demand reinforced each other, pushing premiums to RMB 1,000/ton ahead of the holiday. Starting in October, domestic smelters entered another wave of concentrated maintenance, further confirming expectations of supply contraction. This is expected to provide strong support for copper prices in the fourth quarter, with premiums likely to remain at historical highs. According to Fubao Intelligence, multiple enterprises across various regions are scheduled for maintenance in October–November, collectively reducing primary copper output by approximately 80,000 tons, with the majority of the impact occurring in October. This maintenance cycle coincides with raw material constraints; post-maintenance production recovery will also be limited by the supply of cold feed, raising the risk of output losses exceeding expectations. Domestic primary copper output is anticipated to decline noticeably month-over-month in October, confirming supply contraction during the “Silver October” period.

2. LPG trades at a high level, seeking geopolitical direction

Dadi Futures research report indicates that last week, geopolitical signals were released intensively, frequently affecting market sentiment. As crude oil pulled back from highs, LPG entered a period of high-range consolidation. Compared to crude oil, LPG spot prices remain relatively firm; the typical pre-holiday price reductions and inventory drawdowns seen in previous years did not occur this year, with all facility inventories remaining low and sellers exhibiting strong reluctance to sell. Overall, LPG is in a high-range consolidation phase and requires further directional clarity. The open interest in the LPG main contract remains high, consistently exceeding 100,000 contracts, while LPG warehouse receipts and monthly delivery volumes are both below last year’s levels. This has objectively created a “plenty of money, scarce supply” environment, favoring sustained long-side momentum. On the other hand, the near-month spread widened further this week, reflecting tight physical supply conditions and increasing the potential rollover costs for short positions.

1. September 29 at 4:00 AM, the USDA's weekly crop progress report;

2. September 30 at 9:30 AM: China's official September manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI;

3. September 30, 9:45 AM: China's September RatingDog Manufacturing PMI;

4. On September 30 at 20:00, domestic futures exchanges will be closed for the National Day holiday with no night session.

5. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 25, USA;

6. October 1 at 0:00, the U.S. USDA quarterly inventory report;

7. October 1, 22:00, U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI;

8. October 2 at 3:00, the US USDA Oilseeds Crush Report;

9. On October 2 at 20:30, the U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for September, seasonally adjusted.

10. On October 4, TBA, OPEC+ holds the JMMC and the seven-nation monthly production meeting.