There has been a lot of talk about Bitcoin being down in 2025 and 2026, because Bitcoin has never had two red calendar years in a row. 2014: −57% → 2015: +35% 2018: −74% → 2019: +94% 2022: −64% → 2023: +156% 2025 closed −6%. 2026 is −16% YTD with 7 weeks left. It needs +19% to dodge the first back-to-back down years in its history. But a lot of people are viewing this as bearish. Wrong lens. This is bullish. Be forward-looking while also understanding the historical distribution of outcomes. Two red years. Sure. But how likely have negative 3 year returns been in Bitcoin's history? Since 2010 there have been 4,864 rolling 3-year windows. Only 35 were negative. 0.7%. Pick any day, buy, hold 3 years: you were up 99.3% of the time. The median result was +470%. The only losers bought within weeks of the Nov 2013 or Feb 2021 tops. Two red years might be a first. Three years of patience almost never has been: