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The curse has struck again—the monthly CPI came in higher than expected on both fronts. The annual rate hasn’t been released, likely because the government shutdown in November left no reliable CPI data. Today’s panic stems primarily from comments by Waller, a scholarly Fed governor, who said, “We need to reverse at least the last three precautionary cuts.” Waller was previously a top contender for the next Fed chair. Actually, Bee Brother thinks there’s no need to panic too much. We’ve already hiked once in September, a December hike is certain, and we’ll likely hike just once more in Q1 next year—totaling exactly three hikes. As for Q2 next year, Bee Brother has analyzed this countless times: oil prices began rising in March this year; by Q2 next year, when you do the math, the annual CPI rate will come down. So, Bee Brother previously predicted that market conditions would gradually improve in Q1 or Q2—now it seems Q2 is more likely.

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