Chip Stocks Lead U.S. Equity Rebound, BTC Re-tests Key $64K Resistance Level
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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As international oil prices declined, concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions eased, supporting a gradual recovery in risk appetite. U.S. equities extended their rebound, with the Nasdaq rising more than 1% for a second consecutive gain, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also reversed their previous declines. Semiconductor stocks became the primary driver, with the semiconductor index gaining more than 3%, Micron rising 4.5%, and SanDisk climbing 7.6%. The crypto market moved higher in tandem, with BTC stabilizing near $61,700 before trending upward, breaking above $63,000 and briefly touching around $63,800. Short-term bullish momentum has recovered. BTC is currently testing the key $64,000 resistance level, but trading volume has not expanded significantly, leaving the sustainability of the rebound to be further confirmed.
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BTC: $63,229.6 (+1.51%); ETH: $1,745.12 (+0.09%); NASDAQ: 26,206.89 (+1.30%); S&P 500: 7,543.55 (+0.81%); Fear & Greed Index: 23 (Previous: 22) (Data as of: 2026-07-10 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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Only days after the launch of Robinhood Chain mainnet, the ecosystem has experienced explosive growth. Daily DEX trading volume surpassed $560 million, while daily active addresses approached 200,000, allowing Robinhood Chain to surpass Base and become the second-largest Uniswap deployment chain. Meme token CASHCAT briefly exceeded a $150 million market cap, while World announced its migration from Solana to Robinhood Chain. Robinhood is accelerating the transition of CeFi users into the on-chain ecosystem, with momentum spreading across the broader Arbitrum ecosystem. Robinhood Chain and other Arbitrum L2s will direct 10% of fees to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with 8% allocated to token holder treasuries. Combined with rapid ecosystem expansion, ARB surged more than 15% on the day.
Macroeconomic Developments
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Escalation of U.S.–Iran Conflict: Trump announced the end of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, with U.S. forces striking approximately 170 Iranian military targets over two consecutive days. Iran launched super-heavy missiles targeting U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf. Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to approximately four vessels per day, down from around 32 previously, effectively approaching a standstill.
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The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes showed significant disagreement among officials regarding inflation prospects and future rate paths. Some officials believed further rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains elevated, while others argued that maintaining or lowering rates would be more appropriate if inflation pressures ease. At the June meeting, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%.
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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced the formation of five external expert working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed’s monetary policy framework, covering balance sheet management, policy tools, and the impact of artificial intelligence.
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U.S. initial jobless claims declined to 215,000 last week, reaching a recent low.
Industry Events
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Polymarket is seeking U.S. regulatory approval to offer margin trading, allowing users to participate in prediction markets with lower upfront capital requirements.
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PayPal’s USD stablecoin PYUSD will be natively issued on the Polygon network.
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The U.S. CFTC rejected CME Group’s application to accelerate the launch of 24/7 oil futures contracts.
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BitGo will launch a quantum-resistant security tool for Bitcoin wallets to help institutions mitigate quantum computing risks.
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BlackRock transferred 951.5 BTC, worth approximately $59 million, to Coinbase Prime.
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Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission requested brokers and virtual asset platforms disable one-time passwords to prevent impersonation fraud.
Alpha Project Performance
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MORPHO/RAY: Raydium announced the listing of MORPHO trading pairs. Driven by the announcement, MORPHO gained nearly 10% daily, while RAY rose slightly by 1%.
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ARB: Robinhood Chain and other Arbitrum L2s will allocate 10% of fees to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with 8% directed to token holder treasuries. Combined with the recent explosive growth of the Robinhood Chain ecosystem, ARB gained more than 15% on the day.
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AAVE: Aave launched fixed-income infrastructure Stable Vaults. The catalyst pushed AAVE up more than 6% daily.
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SENT: Robinhood announced the listing of SENT spot trading. The news triggered a surge in social media discussions, driving the token up nearly 20%.
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XLM: Stellar mainnet launched the Protocol 27 Zipper upgrade, introducing smart contract credentials and developer identity verification delegation features. Trading volume surged nearly threefold, pushing XLM up nearly 6% daily.
This Week’s Outlook
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July 10: SK hynix U.S. ADR is scheduled to list on Nasdaq; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers remarks.
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July 11: IO unlock: 3.9% of circulating supply, worth approximately $2.53M; ALLO unlock: 8.6% of circulating supply, worth approximately $2.84M; IMX unlock: 1.14% of circulating supply, worth approximately $1.20M.
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July 12: APT unlock: 1.31% of circulating supply, worth approximately $6.78M.
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TBD: Developments in the U.S.–Iran situation.
